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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 172044
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
144 PM PDT Wed Apr 17 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A warming trend is expected through Thursday.

2. Maximum temperatures will remain above seasonal values Friday
through at least Monday.

3. The warmer weather will not cause hydrological concerns due
to snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada.

4. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the Sierra Nevada
both Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A high latitude omega block attempts to develop over northern
British Columbia and the Yukon keeping California in a weak
westerly flow aloft tonight and Thursday continuing the slow
warming trend. Climatic normals for this time of spring are
highs in the mid 70s and lows from 45 to the lower 50s north to
south in the San Joaquin Valley. The PoE of 85 degrees on
Thursday:

Madera            11%          Merced          2%
Fresno            41%          Reedley         6%
Lemoore NAS       31%          Hanford        31%
Visalia           26%          Porterville    21%
Delano            41%          Bakersfield    41%
Edwards AFB       51%          China Lake NAF 81%

A weak upper level wave slides through Friday afternoon through
Saturday across the southern half of the Golden State. This
will aide to keep temperatures very similar with similar PoE of
85 as Thursday. The main difference will be the probability of
Thunderstorms over the Sierra. The convective available
potential energy is modest. The mid-level lapse rates are
marginal with the range from 6.5 to 7.5 C/km. The old school
lifted index even falls into the 0 to -4C range. NBM point
probabilities range from 5% in the valley locations and top out
in the Sierra around 15%. For now will maintain the threat as
low end and message the low probability without the
introduction into the deterministic forecast.

Saturday night through Monday a westerly flow develops to
maintain temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Monday a piece of an upper low in the North
Central Pacific breaks a wave off that allows an increase of the
ridge to bring temperatures up a few degrees here is the PoE of
85 for Monday:

Madera            21%          Merced         11%
Fresno            41%          Reedley        31%
Lemoore NAS       41%          Hanford        41%
Visalia           41%          Porterville    46%
Delano            51%          Bakersfield    51%
Edwards AFB       56%          China Lake NAF 91%

Tuesday and Wednesday next week features an upper trough over
the West Coast of the CONUS. This slides temperatures back to
seasonal normals and introduces slim probabilities of
precipitation in the higher elevations of Yosemite NP.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Only a slim probability of brief MVFR 10Z-14Z along the
Highway 99 corridor in the rural regions with 3-5SM visibility
and in areas, like the vicinity of KHJO or KVIS, a very brief
shot of down to 1SM similar to this morning.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  04/16/2024 14:27
EXPIRES: 04/17/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS/PIO....BSO

weather.gov/hanford