712
FXUS62 KMHX 110107
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
907 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through the area late today and tonight,
followed by high pressure over the weekend. Another front will
come through around the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 900 PM Friday...

A wavy cold frontal boundary has cut through about half of
Eastern NC at this time, and will push off the coast by 10-11pm.
One final broken band of convection along the front will
continue to pose a risk of gusty winds (40-60 mph) and small
hail (up to penny size). The overall severe weather risk appears
to be decreasing, though, and the Severe Thunderstorm Watch
will be allowed to expire. Adjustments to temps, winds, pops
were made to reflect recent trends in obs and on radar, but the
spirit of the forecast remains unchanged.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...After convection exits the coast, strong
CAA (for May) will bring temps down into the 50s overnight,
with areas of stratocu forming along the coast. Some widely
scattered showers may also develop along the OBX by early
tomorrow morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Fri...Much cooler conditions expected tomorrow as
northerly CAA winds persist. The combination of onshore flow and
extensive stratocu coverage will keep temps along the Outer and
Inner Banks areas in the 60s while further west, highs will
rebound into the low 70s in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As 315 PM Fri...Drier and cooler weather forecast for this
weekend as high pressure ridging builds in from the south and
west. More unsettled weather then approaches ENC on Tue/Wed as a
deepening low pressure tracks across the SOutheast and Mid-
Atlantic with high pressure quickly building in behind this low
on Thursday.

Sat Night and Sun... Not much change to the forecast for this
weekend. Upper troughing remains over the eastern CONUS this
weekend while a cutoff upper low over the Four Corners region
begins to push E`wards towards the Plains. Yet another shortwave
will round the base of this troughing on Saturday before
ridging finally begins to build in from the west on Sun. At the
surface low pressure with attendant fronts will be diving
SE`wards across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic
on Sat before moving offshore on Sun and pulling away from the
region while high pressure ridge will gradually build in from
the south and west.

Cloud cover should mainly be over the coastal locales, esp OBX,
but may be some bkn diurnal strato cu all areas with the cold
air aloft. Highs only getting into the 70s each day while lows
dip down into the 50s each night.

Mon into the end of next week...Upper ridging finally builds over
the Eastern Seaboard and quickly pushes offshore by Tue as
previously mentioned cutoff low opens into a trough and tracks
E`wards towards the Mid-Atlantic Tue and Wed before troughing pushes
offshore on Thurs. Associated shortwave also quickly pushes E`wards
across the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic Tue into Wed
before pushing offshore on Thurs bringing our next threat for
unsettled weather to the area around Tue/Wed. As s/w makes its way
E`wards surface cyclogenesis occurs across the Plains with low
pressure and its associated fronts quickly approaching the
Carolinas from the west Tue. Secondary low pressure development
is then forecast along the Eastern Seaboard Tue night into Wed
with this second low pushing off to the north and east of the
area by Wed evening. Though there still remains some differences
in timing and locations of these lows next week, ensemble and
global guidance is in enough consensus to put likely PoP`s
across the area Tue afternoon into Tue night with Chc PoP`s
across the area on Wed as the upper trough moves through with
drier conditions then forecast late next week. Temps remain
about avg across the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Sunday/...
As of 900 PM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- TSRA risk decreasing

- Increasing risk of sub-VFR CIGs through the night and into
  the day Saturday

FORECAST DETAILS

A cold front is pushing south/southeast through Eastern NC this
evening, and should clear the coast by 03z/11pm. One final
broken band of TSRA will accompany the front before also pushing
offshore. Gusty winds to 40kt and small hail will be possible
with the strongest TSRA. Behind the front, low CIGs are
beginning to quickly spill south along the Northern Outer Banks.
How far south and west the lower CIGs get is less certain, and
for now I`ve kept all TAF sites at VFR through the night. Stay
tuned for updates, though, as there is a 30-50% chance of MVFR,
or lower, CIGs tonight-Saturday morning. During the day
Saturday, CIGs will rise some, but may stay MVFR / low VFR. A
few SHRA may redevelop as well, mainly along the OBX.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 315 PM Fri...Primarily VFR conditions are forecast across
the CWA through early next week before the next potential round
of sub VFR conditions around mid week next week with the
approach of a low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 900 PM Friday...

Thunderstorms will continue to push southeast through the
central and southern waters, eventually moving further out to
sea by midnight. Gusty winds to 40kt and small hail will be
possible with the strongest storms. In the wake of the storms, a
cold front will push through and will be accompanied by a surge
of northerly winds, which will last into Saturday. SCAs cover
this threat already, so no changes are needed.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SCAs are set to go into effect this
evening due to increasing winds associated with a cold front
moving through the area.

Seas will be 3-5 ft through this evening, and then increase to
4-6 ft after midnight through early tomorrow morning. Seas
decrease to 3-5 ft tomorrow for all but the outer central waters
where some 6 footers may linger through the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...
As of 320 PM Fri...Winds ease down to 5-10 kts by Sat evening
and seas along our coastal waters fall to 2-4 ft. Lighter winds
at 5-15 kts and 2-4 ft seas then persist through Monday before
winds begin increasing on Tue to 15-20 kts out ahead of an
approaching low. Seas also build on Tue in response to the
stronger winds as well.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through
     Saturday evening for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ131-137-
     230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ135-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RM/RCF
MARINE...RM/SGK/RCF