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000
FXUS62 KMHX 230009
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
809 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure briefly builds into the area from the south
through Tuesday followed by a frontal passage with limited
moisture on Wednesday. High pressure builds back into the area
from the north for the latter half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

Early this evening, a ~1021mb surface high was located over
central North Carolina, with low pressure well southeast of Cape
Hatteras. In between the two features, a modest gradient is
keeping winds up along, and just inland, of the coast.
Meanwhile, away from the coast, the gradient has relaxed enough
to support lighter winds (<10mph). Aloft, an upper level trough
axis was centered directly over ENC. Beneath the low, radar is
showing some weak returns. Given how dry the low-levels are, I
suspect most of this isn`t reaching the ground, and surface obs
appear to confirm this suspicion.

Through the night, the high will shift south towards the coast,
putting it centered just to the south/southwest of ENC. Winds
are expected to remain light through the night, but there may be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds around 5 mph, except
for sheltered locations. Looking around the area, dewpoints are
mostly in the mid to upper 30s. Despite a light northerly wind,
short-term guidance doesn`t indicate a significant push of drier
air, and it appears that values will generally hold in the
mid-30s. Meanwhile, air temps are still in the 50s for much of
the area. Through mostly radiative processes, temps are expected
to fall into the 30s/40s tonight. However, it appears there are
just enough limitations to prevent a more widespread frost
potential overnight. Probabilistically, there is a 20-40% chance
of frost along/west of HWY 17. With all of this in mind, we`ll
continue to hold off on a Frost Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday... Upper level flow turns more zonal in
nature with general W-NW`rly flow aloft while at the surface
high pressure ridge pushes to the east eventually becoming
centered off the SE Coast by Tue afternoon. Upper level
subsidence will result in clear to partly cloudy skies on Tue
with light and variable winds in the morning eventually turning
to a SW`rly direction Tue afternoon as the ridge becomes
centered offshore. Do expect much warmer conditions on Tue with
a lack of cloud cover and increasing low level thicknesses
overspreading ENC as weak WAA begins, with highs forecast to get
into the 60s along the OBX and low 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Fairly quiet stretch in the long term
with high pressure dominating early in the week, mostly dry
front moving through mid-week, and another high pressure setting
up through the weekend.

Wednesday...Low sweeps to our north, pinching the pressure
gradient with the high to our south. This looks to prevent
decoupling Wednesday morning, leaving lows in the upper 40s to
start the day inland. Along the coast lows will be in the mid to
upper 50s. High pressure to our south moves offshore through
the day Wednesday, causing winds to veer from southerly to
westerly through the day. Wednesday looks to be the gustiest day
in the long term, with ample mixing allowing gusts of 20kts
inland, slightly higher for OBX. Fortunately RHs will be well
above 35%, so fire weather should not be a concern. Highs look
to be in the mid to upper 70s inland, low 70s for the coast,
aided by the south veering west flow through the day. Wednesday
night a dry cold front will move through the region from NW to
SE. Atmospheric column looks to be fairly dry during the weak
cold front passage, preventing the inclusion of mentionable PoPs
for Wednesday. As the front moves through Wednesday night,
northerly wind gusts will be increasing, but should remain
below 30 kts.

Thursday to Sunday...High pressure to our north keeps us dry,
with high temps incrementally increasing each day. Into the
weekend, omega block setup initiates at upper levels. This will
allow the high pressure to linger through the remainder of the
long term. Low moving through the eastern US in the weekend will
encounter this stubborn high, and some uncertainty remains on
if it will be pushed north around the high, or if the high will
give way. If the low moves north, we will have less chances of
precip in the weekend. If the low is able to shift the high
offshore, we will see increased chances of precip. Removed all
PoP mentions with this update for Saturday as high looks to
shelter us from any incoming precip. Sunday the high to our NE
moves south, settling just offshore or off the SC coast as we
get into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /Through 00z Wednesday/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

1) VFR conditions likely (60-80% chance) through Tuesday

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure over central NC will shift south to the coast
overnight, then shift offshore on Tuesday. With the high over
the area, winds will be light through the night. The exception
is for coastal terminals where a modest, 10-15kt N/NE will
continue for several more hours. Conditions tonight do not
appear supportive of widespread FG. However, with low
temp/dewpoint spreads, I suspect there will be periods of low-
impact shallow FG (MIFG). As the high shifts offshore on
Tuesday, winds will become S/SW, but remain relatively light
(5-15kt).

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
Friday with high pressure dominating the long term.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday/...
As of 745 PM Monday...

The forecast is mostly on-track this evening. The main change I
made was to increase seas across the northern and central waters
to better align with recent buoy data. In light of this, it now
looks like 5- 6ft will linger longer than forecast north of
Cape Hatteras, and I have extended the northern waters SCA out
further in time.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Gusty conditions will gradually ease
tonight and shower activity along the coastal waters will end as
deepening low pressure well offshore begins to lift NE`wards
away from the North Carolina waters this evening and is replaced
by a ridge of high pressure. This will allow for SCA`s to
gradually be taken down from west to east this afternoon and
evening with the first SCA coming down across the northern
waters and sounds as of this update. In general 15-25 kt NE`rly
winds with gusts in excess of 20-30 kts will ease tonight down
to about 5-15 kts with gusts in excess of 15-20 kt. This will
allow for the SCA`s to fall across the Pamlico Sound as well. As
high pressure continues to build east over the area on Tue 5-15
kt winds will become light and variable at times as winds
switch from a N`rly direction Tue morning to a S`rly direction
Tue afternoon. 6-8 ft seas across our coastal waters will
gradually lower as well falling to 3-5 ft across our northern
waters early tonight ending SCA`s here and then to 3-5 ft across
our southern waters by Tue morning ending SCA`s here. Some
backswell from the deepening low well offshore could keep 4-6 ft
seas across our coastal waters into Wed allowing SCA`s to
persist

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 315 AM Monday...6 ft seas (7-8ft for gulf stream) will
linger through Wednesday from the one-two punch of the deepening
low offshore Tuesday and stronger pressure gradient winds
Wednesday. Wind gusts for coastal waters and Pamlico Sound will
be near 25 kts during the morning/early afternoon hours
Wednesday from a pinched gradient, before decreasing Wednesday
evening. As a dry cold front moves southeastward Wednesday
night, northerly winds will pick up behind it, gusting near 25
kts for all waters except for the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers, and
coastal waters from Cape Lookout to Surf City. Remainder of the
long term looks to be quiet with seas settling to 3-5 feet
Thursday-Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ