


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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284 FXUS61 KPHI 130527 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 127 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front approaches the region today into Monday before slowly crossing through later Monday into Tuesday. Thereafter, the front stalls near/over the region before lifting back north as a warm front later Wednesday into Thursday. Another cold front approaches towards the end of week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Today looks mostly like a repeat of yesterday as easterly flow continues to dominate. This means more low clouds and patchy fog to start, with sun breaking through towards midday/early afternoon. Also it means that convection will be mostly confined to well inland/higher terrain locales, with I-95 and points southeast seeing just slight chance of a shower or storm. Highs well into the 80s with heat indices in the 90s. Tonight, things start to change as a front approaches. Better chance that some weakening convection from the west reaches our western lower elevation zones than the last few days during the evening, then remnant showers may cross the entire area overnight. Otherwise, looks like another round of low clouds/patchy fog by late at night. Lows mostly near or above 70. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front approaches our region from the west Monday while slowing down and undergoing frontolysis. Very slowly, this front makes its way through the region Monday into Tuesday before eventually stalling over/near the region for the remainder of the term. Given this situation, expect the showery summertime pattern to continue. Some spotty showers leftover from tonight could linger for areas during the Monday morning time frame, depending on the time frame of frontal movement. Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected for the region Monday afternoon into the nighttime period as the front only sags ever so sightly to the southeast with time. While there is mainly only a slight chance of PoPs for Tuesday, some spotty showers and thunderstorms should not be ruled out for the afternoon time frame onwards given the location/proximity of the stalled front. Fog formation is possible for areas during the late nighttime and early morning periods, but this will be dependent on precipitation occurrence and mixing. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Stationary boundary looks to plague the region before an approaching low pressure systems lifts it through as a weak warm front Wednesday/Thursday. Thereafter, another cold front approaches, looking to pass through sometime near/during the weekend (e.g, late Friday/early Saturday). Unfortunately, this synoptic situation supports a continuation of the showery summertime pattern. Chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday/Thursday/Friday, mainly during the afternoon and evening time frames with diurnal heating in place. End of the week/weekend cold front will be watched for exact time frame of approach/passage, and its severe weather potential. Heat headlines may be needed for areas Wednesday/Thursday/Friday. Guidance supports heat indices approaching criteria. && .AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Thru 12Z...Low clouds developing generally with most areas seeing cigs drop to IFR or lower. The set up looks more favorable for low clouds than fog, except near the coast, including KACY, where both the lowest ceilings and lowest visibilities are likely to occur. By 09Z, expect most locations to have IFR conditions. Winds remain light (5 kt or less), generally favoring the southeasterly direction, but could be variable at times. High confidence in overall pattern, low confidence in timing/placement of development of fog and visibility restrictions. Today...Once low clouds and fog dissipate, will see a return to VFR conditions. Storms will begin to approach the area from the northwest by 00Z, but impacts mostly confined to KRDG/KABE. Moderate confidence, Tonight...VFR with a few t-storms near KRDG/KABE to start, then cigs drop to IFR again most terminals. A few showers could make their way across the rest of the terminals after 6Z. Low confidence. Outlook... Monday through Thursday...Overall, VFR conditions. However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief periods of sub-VFR conditions daily. Sub-VFR conditions are also possible overnights/early mornings due to low clouds and fog, but uncertainty remains on this potential, so confidence is low. && .MARINE... Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Outlook... Sunday night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally remain 15 kt or less with seas around 2-4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible daily, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours, with the greatest probability of showers and storms being on Monday. Rip Currents... Today, winds will be out of the southeast at around 10 mph with breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with a lower southeast swell and lower wave heights results in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RCM/Wunderlin NEAR TERM...Johnson/RCM SHORT TERM...Wunderlin LONG TERM...Wunderlin AVIATION...Cooper/DeSilva/Johnson/RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin MARINE...DeSilva/Johnson/RCM/Staarmann/Wunderlin