258
FXUS64 KSJT 081955 CCA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Cold front moves through overnight tonight through Thursday
morning, with potential for Severe Weather Thursday afternoon and
evening along the eastern portions of West Central Texas.

Above-normal temperatures from today will mostly come to an end
as the next cold front tracks into West Central Texas overnight
tonight into Thursday morning, with only the southern half of West
Central Texas continuing to experience above-normal temperatures
again on Thursday.  Overnight lows will fall into the mid 50s to
mid 60s tonight, with afternoon highs on Thursday ranging from the
upper 70s to upper 80s north of a Silver to Brownwood line, and
from the upper 80s to upper 90s south of that line.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to begin developing along
and ahead of the dryline starting Thursday afternoon, which looks
to advance along and eastward of a Haskell to Junction line, and
have a little help from a weak shortwave aloft approaching from
the southwest early Thursday evening. With models showing the
available instability increasing and fairly supportive shear
across these areas tomorrow, we are expecting any storms that do
develop to strengthen rapidly in this environment and become
severe. Primary hazards remain large hail and damaging winds, with
a small chance for isolated tornadoes mainly across the Heartland
and eastern portions of the Northwest Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Cooler temperatures in store Friday into the weekend with an
unsettled pattern.

On Friday an upper low will be over southern Nevada. This low will
move slowly east over the Four Corners area Saturday and Saturday
night. With a subtropical jet extending from the eastern
Pacific/Baja region across Texas into the Gulf Coast states, an
embedded disturbance or two will will track over the area during the
first half of the weekend. With a northeast breeze and increase in
cloud cover, temperatures will be cooler area wide Friday with highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A chance of showers and a few
thunderstorms will increase across our area Saturday and Saturday
night. Considerable cloud cover and the prospects for rain Saturday
will limit highs to the 70s.

The aforementioned upper low is progged to move east into western
Kansas by early Sunday night with a trough extending to its south.
Medium range models indicate that the low and trough will make slow
eastward progress on Monday. The approach of the upper low and
trough will bring additional chances of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and Sunday night, with a lingering chance on Monday. With
winds across our area shifting to the southeast and south,
temperatures Sunday will be warmer but still below normal in the
Concho Valley and southern parts of our area. May have a Pacific
front move east across much if not all of our area on Monday. Based
on indications from the 12Z medium range models, rain chances should
drop off Monday night and Tuesday, as the upper trough axis shifts
east of our area. A warming trend is indicated Tuesday and Wednesday
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s Tuesday, and upper 80s to mid
90s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with the
exception of KSOA and KJCT having a very small chance of seeing
brief MVFR ceilings early Thursday morning. This is a much less
likely scenario, but with some lingering low-level moisture and
cooling temperatures behind the front in the morning hours, there
is a very small chance for patchy fog to briefly develop over
these southern terminals. Breezy westerly winds will continue
through this evening, becoming mostly light and variable
overnight, then beginning to pick back up from the north around
10 knots by Thursday morning.

by mid
morning. West to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will decrease
to less than 12 knots late this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  85  59  78 /   0  20  10  10
San Angelo  63  95  62  80 /   0  10   0  10
Junction    66  98  64  81 /   0  20   0  10
Brownwood   63  89  61  77 /   0  40  10  10
Sweetwater  62  84  59  78 /   0  10   0  10
Ozona       65  94  62  81 /   0   0  10  20
Brady       65  90  63  79 /   0  30  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...TP