946
FXUS62 KTAE 182000
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Showers with isolated, embedded thunderstorms were developing
southeast of a Defuniak Springs, FL - Fitzgerald, GA line as
of late this afternoon. The main concern with will be local
poor drainage flooding, mainly in the FL Big Bend, where the
activity is having a tendency to train. This is diurnally
driven and will diminish with the setting sun. Late tonight,
patchy fog is expected to develop over much of the region
and could be locally dense. The fog is expected to dissipate
by 10 AM ET/9 AM CT on Thursday. A much drier pattern will
take hold on Thursday, with only a slight chance of showers
in the afternoon near the I-75 corridor and eastern FL Big
Bend. Lows tonight in the upper 60s to lower 70s and highs
on Thursday in the mid-80s to near 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

High pressure builds in from the west, which will usher in drier
air to the region. High temperatures for Friday will be in the
upper 89s across SW GA, while SE AL warms into the lower 90s which
is about couple of degrees above normal for this time of year. Our
overnight lows will be above normal and in the upper 60s to low
70s for Thursday night and Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Models and ensembles depict upper level high pressure through the
long term. Dry weather is expected as well with temperatures
generally remaining above normal for this time of years. Highs
will generally upper 80s to low 90s through early next week, with
perhaps the mid to upper 80s being possible on Tuesday. Overnight
lows remain elevated in the upper 60s to low 70s.

For those watching the tropics, the National Hurricane Center has
placed 20% chance of development in the northwest Caribbean Sea or
Yucatan channel next week. Global models and ensembles continue to
indicate some sort of tropical development, but there is
significant spread and run-to-run variability as to where it
might go. Thus it is too soon determine any potential impacts.
Please stay tuned to the forecast here with us and over at
hurricanes.gov. Now is a good time to check on your hurricane
kits.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

For this afternoon and evening, brief MVFR in TSRA at TLH
and VLD, with VCTS at ECP. Thunder should end 22Z-00Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions.

For late tonight and Thursday morning, the main concern will
be the development of fog, generally in the 09Z-14Z time
frame. Confidence in fog is highest at ABY and VLD, with a
couple hours of LIFR. Sufficient confidence for a couple
hours of MVFR at DHN and TLH. Confidence lower regarding
the category restrictions. Meanwhile, don`t expect fog at
ECP with this forecast, so maintained VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Wind will vary from the west and north today and Friday, before
east to northeast flow returns this weekend and holds into mid
next week. Next week, we may see periods of cautionary conditions
and higher seas during the overnight hours. In terms of showers
and thunderstorms, we may see some nocturnal or morning development
tonight and into tomorrow. Otherwise drier conditions should
prevail into early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Drier conditions are expected for the remainder of the week.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels, and
fuels are currently moist from recent rainfall. In addition,
dispersions are forecast to be fair.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 339 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Today is the last best shot for heavy showers and thunderstorms,
before drier air works into the region. Localized flooding remains
possible with any slower moving cells or areas of training,
especially in urban or poor drainage areas. No riverine flooding
is expected at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   71  88  71  89 /  20  10   0   0
Panama City   73  88  73  89 /  10  10   0   0
Dothan        69  88  70  90 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        69  87  70  89 /  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      70  87  70  88 /  20  10   0   0
Cross City    72  88  72  90 /  20  20   0  10
Apalachicola  73  86  74  86 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...KR