722
FXUS65 KVEF 100808
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
108 AM PDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop later today, mostly across southern Nevada, Inyo and
northern Mohave Counties. Gusty outflow winds will occur with any
thunderstorms. Another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms
will occur well northeast of Las Vegas Saturday. Sunday onward a
warming trend will commence with temperatures climbing as much as 5
to 10 degrees above normal through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

Skies partly to mostly cloudy across northern Inyo, Esmeralda and
central Nye Counties early this morning. Skies mostly clear
elsewhere.

Cloud cover being driven by a small, tightly wound vorticity center
over central Nevada. This feature will steadily move southwest into
Inyo County by early afternoon, all of this is going on under a
broad cutoff low over the area. Yesterday afternoon there were only
a few lightning strikes in east central Nevada associated with
SBCAPE values between 200-400 J/kg. Today the NAM shows SBCAPE
values of 200-400 J/kg encompassing all of south central Nevada, as
well as mainly the higher terrain of Inyo, Clark, northern Mohave,
and far northeast San Bernardino Counties. Did blend camPoPs with
the NBM to better capture the expanded coverage in scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms today. Gusty outflow winds likely with
strongest cores as HRRR model forecast sounding DCAPE values range
between 600-1000 J/kg. Little rain expected to reach the ground with
less than a 10% probability of exceeding a 0.10" anywhere in our
forecast area. Most of the debris clouds from the convection will
gradually vanish tonight leading to mostly clear, to partly cloudy
skies at worse. The cutoff low shifts east across southern
Utah/northern Arizona Saturday. The best instability for the final
day of any showers and thunderstorms will exist in eastern Lincoln,
northern Mohave and potentially northeast Clark Counties. Elsewhere,
there will be shallow cumulus as instability starts to wane.

High temperatures today will be very similar to yesterday. Warmer
Saturday with highs topping out close to normal. Other than those
outflow induces winds, am not looking at any significant gradient
winds.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.

On Sunday, the aforementioned closed low will push eastward out of
our forecast area as a Pacific ridge continues to build over the
Desert Southwest. Temperatures will increase to above-average on
Sunday and will further increase on Monday to 8-10 degrees above
seasonal averages. HeatRisk increases from "Low" to "Moderate" on
Monday for the desert zones as a result. Heights will remain
elevated through the rest of the forecast period; however, ensemble
means indicate that a shortwave trough will close off over the
Desert Southwest midweek, which will allow for some modest moisture
to funnel into the region as the low interacts with a longwave
trough over the Intermountain West. Not expecting much in the way of
precipitation, but regarding impacts, gusty winds can be expected
each afternoon as a result of tightened pressure gradients.

GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means disagree late-week with regard to this
weak low pushing eastward out of our area vs. it retrograding back
overhead and briefly getting caught in a blocking pattern with a
strong high over the Pacific Northwest. As such, NBM probabilities
of Las Vegas reaching its first 100 of the season continue to
decrease, with the latest run showing 11% chance Wednesday and
Thursday and a 27% chance on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds early this
morning will turn north to northeast by mid-morning with speeds
generally remaining 10kts or less.  After 20Z, winds are expected to
turn to the northwest and become gusty, with occasional gusts to
20kts.  Scattered thunderstorms are also possible after 21Z,
although most of the activity is expected to remain over the higher
terrain surrounding the valley.  Any storms that do develop may
generate outflow winds from the direction of the storms that could
affect the field. The threat of storms will end after sunset, and
light northerly winds are forecast for the overnight period.  VFR
conditions should prevail through the TAF period, although CIGs down
to 8kft AGL will be possible with any thunderstorm activity that
develops during the late afternoon and evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most regional TAF sites will see north-to-northeast
winds continue today and tonight with speeds generally between 10-15
knots.  A few scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
northern two-thirds of the region this afternoon and early evening.
Any storms that do develop may generate outflow winds from the
direction of the storms and result in CIGs down to 8kft AGL. Away
from any thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions will prevail with
only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 10kft AGL.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Varian
AVIATION...Planz

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