179
FXUS62 KCAE 091321
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
921 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Potential for strong to severe storms continues through Friday
morning. Drier conditions return for the weekend before the next
chance of precipitation arrives by midweek. Expect temperatures
to be near average for much of the forecast period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Given the strength of the line moving into western areas, as
well as the breaks in the clouds allowing for addtional heating,
we have expanded the Tornado Watch eastward to include the
Columbia metro area, as well as Orangeburg and Sumter. I am
really more concerned with wind than tornadoes, but I didn`t
want to have two different types of watches out at the same time
for fear the message would get confused.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
One more potentially active convective day Friday ahead of the
advancing cold front. Guidance still seems to handle potential
MCS moving through south-central GA and into southern SC during
the morning hour and into the early afternoon. This may impact
the southern CSRA the most if it does develop as forecast and
moves through. Damaging winds would be the primary threat, with
hail also being possible. Additional thunderstorm development
possible late in the day over the northeastern Midlands as the
main upper trough axis swings through. By Friday night, the
drier air behind the front will finally be getting into the
area, ending the rain chances for the weekend. Saturday will be
dry and cooler behind the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions look quite nice into Monday with high pressure across
the area. Rain chances do increase Monday night through
Wednesday ahead of a slow moving, closed mid/upper level low
progged to push into the eastern CONUS by the middle of next
week. Temperatures remain cooler through Tuesday, then warm back
up by the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms to bring periodic restrictions
into the afternoon, VFR otherwise.

Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
through about 18z-20z. Expect convective related restrictions
with the passing storms. Confidence is highest in the 14z-19z
timeframe, so have included a TS tempo group at each of the
terminals to try to capture the main wave of convection.
Thunderstorms outside of this main wave are possible, but timing
and confidence in location isn`t high enough to include at this
time and will amend when needed. Strong winds in excess of 50
knots with the convection, especially the main wave are
possible. Outside of the storm related winds, background winds
are forecast to be from the southwest gusting to around 20 kts.
Winds diminish after 00z. There is potential for restrictions
again at the very end of the TAF period, but left it out until
the next TAF issuance.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another day of convection and
associated restrictions on Friday is possible. Drier weather
with no restrictions likely for this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...