361
FXUS63 KICT 121932
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
232 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers/isolated storms tonight.

- Showers/isolated storm chances lingering through Monday night.

- Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Trending warmer (above climo) for next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Some diurnal heating where skies partially cleared to the west
of greater Wichita at midday has promoted scattered showers and
isolated storms approaching the western CWA border. Combo of
modest bulk shear and weak/modest instability will keep storms
rather tame with a remote possibility for small hail closer to
the Oklahoma border late this afternoon. That said, the
relatively better chances for the more organized coverage for
showers and embedded storms look to reside over parts of central
and south central Kansas during the evening thru about midnight
ahead of the vorticity anomaly associated with the upper trof.
Later in the night the better precipitable water axis
(1.33-1.50") will shift primarily to along/east of the Kansas
turnpike where a modest low level jet and elevated cape values
400-800 j/kg should support better coverage of showers/storms
with some locally heavy rainfall. Clouds and scattered showers
will linger across much of the area on Monday with a modest
diurnal up-tick possible even with limited heating. This in
combo with modest shear may support a few strong storms with a
hail small risk in far southeast Kansas. Diurnal heating on the
western periphery of the upper trof where low level moisture
will linger may support isolated storms in parts of central
Kansas too. Precip chances should diminish/end from west to east
across the forecast area on Monday evening/night as the upper
trof shifts east of the area. Dry weather is expected on Tuesday
under shortwave ridging aloft with temperatures near seasonal
climo with perhaps some diurnal cu along/east of the turnpike.

Moisture looks to advect northward into the area ahead of the next
upper trof for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Late day convection to
our northwest across southern Nebraska/northwest Kansas will have a
decent chance to move/propagate southeast into the developing
elevated instability axis over central Kansas on Tuesday night. The
airmass looks to become moderately to potentially very unstable
along the surface cold front on Wednesday which will be situated
somewhere across the forecast area (more likely along or just south
of the turnpike corridor at late afternoon). Westerly flow aloft
will provide moderate deep layer shear, so a conditional severe risk
is in play.

Confidence toward the end of the seven day forecast has trended
a bit lower as a rather large potential spread in the medium
range guidance has developed. This actually reveals itself as
early as Thursday into Friday, where the operational ECMWF is
much more agressive in digging an upper trof into the north
central conus which would imply much cooler over the GFS with
further ramification into next weekend. For now the NBM
maintains a warming trend and will stay the course with time to
adjust should an eventual consensus warrant the change.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

A busy aviation period is expected over the next 24 hours.
Widely scattered showers/storms are developing across portions
of central and western KS. Have highlighted the most likely time
windows for shower/storm activity at each site. CIGS are likely
low to MVFR later this afternoon into the evening, continuing
through midday Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...BMB