467
FXUS66 KLOX 141003
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
303 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...14/1205 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and patchy fog will affect the
coasts and most valleys through most of this week. Today will be
the warmest day of the next seven. A cooling trend will develop
Tuesday and continue through the middle of the week when valley
highs are only expected to be in the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...14/1204 AM.

The streak of benign weather will continue through the next three
days. At the upper levels a 595 dam upper high will sit atop of
Srn CA today. On Tuesday a weak trof will move into the state and
push the high to the south and east - hgts will fall to 590 dam.
There will only be weak flow aloft with no defining synoptic
features on Wednesday - hgts will fall further to 588 dam. At the
sfc strong onshore flow will continue with gradients peaking
during the afternoon hours both to the east (5 to 9 mb) and to the
north (4 to 6 mb).

The strong onshore flow will bring night through morning low
clouds and fog will overspread the coasts and into valleys on all
three days. Look for slow to minimal clearing at the west-facing
beaches as well. Additionally there will be an early return of
the stratus each evening. Patchy early morning drizzle is also be
possible across the coasts and valleys each morning.

Max temperatures will be very similar to Sunday`s, with 70s
across the coasts (mid to upper 60s beaches) and 80s and lower 90s
in the valleys. These max temps are mostly 3 to 6 degrees below
normal for this time of year. The interior areas such as Cuyama
and Antelope Valley, however, with no marine influence will
continue to see max temps from 100 to 105 each day which is 5
degrees above normal. The lower heights on Tuesday will bring max
temps down by 1 to 3 degrees at the coasts and 3 to 6 degrees
elsewhere. Continued hgt falls on Wednesday will knock an
additional 2 to 4 degree off of max temps away from the coasts.
Vly temps on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to mid 80s or
5 to 10 degrees blo normal.

Lastly, gusty onshore winds will continue across interior areas
such as the western Antelope Valley and foothills each afternoon
and evening. These winds will be near advisory levels, but only a
few of the typical gusty locations will see gusts near 45 mph.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...14/232 AM.

A change in the weather begins on Thursday. The upper level flow
begins to switch to the SE and this will allow some moisture to
advect into the area.

There is a small chance (20%) that enough upper level moisture
will arrive to disrupt the marine layer, but more than likely
Thursday will start out like Wednesday. There will likely be
enough moisture over the area in the afternoon to produce a few
mtn build ups. But there is less than a 10 percent chc of a shower
or TSTM.

The GFS and EC both deterministic and ensemble means continue to
show a substantial influx of moisture esp from 700mb to 850mb.
There is some mdl disagreement about how much moisture will move
in in the 850mb to 700mb layer. The mdls currently indicate very
little in the way of instability but that may well change as the
days draw nearer and the forecast moves into sigma based mdls time
frame. Currently there is a 10 percent chc of TSTMs forecast each
afternoon and early evening Fri-Sun for the LA/VTA mtns and
portions of the Antelope Vly.

The current forecast continues the night through morning low
cloud regime, however, this might be overdone as the the moisture
aloft and offshore trends could well combine to limit or even
eliminate the morning stratus.

Max temps will continue to run several degrees blo normal
everywhere save for the Antelope Vly which is forecast to end up a
couple of degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...14/0602Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1300 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was at 4100 feet with a max temperature of 24 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KWJF and KPMD.

MDT confidence in remaining TAFs. Timing of flight cat changes may
be off by 90 minutes. There is a 20 percent chc of SCT conds for 1
to 2 hours in the afternoon at sites with no clearing fcst.

There is a 20% chc for cigs 002-004 at KPRB between 12Z and 16Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of
clearing (or brief) from 21Z to 00Z. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Arrival of cigs tonight
may be off +/- 2 hours. There a 30 percent chc of cigs below 005.

&&

.MARINE...13/708 PM.

Through this evening, localized Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W to
NW winds may impact the waters around Point Conception south to
the Channel Islands, western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel
and nearshore from Point Mugu to Pacific Palisades.

Otherwise, relatively benign conditions are expected through
Thursday, with the exception of patchy dense fog tonight into
tomorrow morning. SCA level winds focused across the outer
waters may become more widespread Friday into the weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Black/KL/Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox