Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FGUS74 KBMX 011442 AAA

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
835 AM CDT Thu Mar 1 2018

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...


Historically for Central Alabama...the river flood season begins in
early to mid January...with the number of river flood events
increasing through late winter with a peak in early to mid March...
and mostly ending in late April for the region. The forecast for
normal river flooding in Central Alabama indicates that the
magnitude and number of events will be typical.


As far as 28-day average streamflow...streamflow levels are near
normal to above normal as of March 1st in most basins in Central
Alabama based on data provided by the United States Geological
Survey (USGS).  Currently...streamflows continue to run near normal
to above normal across Central Alabama due to our recent rainfall.

In the last 30 days...based on Southeast River Forecast Center
(SERFC) precipitation estimates...rainfall has been mostly near
normal across northern sections of Central Alabama and below normal
in the southern sections. Rainfall totals so far this winter
(December through February) across Central Alabama are generally
running from eight to fifteen inches with the lighter amounts
in the southeast sections where deficits of three to six inches
are found. However, rainfall was closer to normal in those areas
during February with the driest conditions during December and

Location                 Rainfall December 2017 thru February 2018
                                 and Departure from Normal
Birmingham                            13.50 inches  (-0.32)
Anniston                              13.30 inches  (-0.42)
Tuscaloosa                            14.17 inches  (-1.12)
Calera                                14.30 inches  (-1.58)
Montgomery                            11.60 inches  (-3.19)
Troy                                   7.98 inches  (-5.99)

Soil moisture profiles across Central Alabama reflect the recent
rainfall pattern across the area. Soil Moisture Profiles are running
above normal across most of Central Alabama...with the lowest values
which are closer to near normal found in the east-central and
southeast sections.

Most of the reservoirs in Central Alabama are near their guide curve
for this time of year. As we head into April and May, most reservoir
target pools begin to increase for their summer pool.


The short term rainfall outlook shows most of the heavy rain will
remain north of Central Alabama during the next five days. As we
head into the 8 to 14 day forecast period a generally wet period
looks to be in store across Central Alabama.

As far as the longer term precipitation outlook through the
remainder of winter into early spring...based on the Climate
Prediction Center`s long lead outlook for March through May, there
are equal chances of above normal...normal...and below normal
precipitation across Central Alabama. However, the March Outlook
does show wetness over much of Central Alabama. Climatologically,
rainfall generally decreases in April relative to March across the

For more information visit the Climate Prediction Center web
site at www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Overall, considering near normal to above normal streamflows in most
areas of Central Alabama, past and forecast precipitation, soil
moisture profiles, the number of river floods and the magnitude of
river flooding will be near normal. Trees and vegetation coming out
of winter dormancy they will also help increase evapotranspiration
rates and minimize runoff.



The SERFC issues a variety of products throughout the year to update
the outlook for water resources. The SERFC Water Resources Outlook
is updated every month.

For the latest multimedia version of the Water Resources
Outlook...go to...


and click on Water Resources Outlook under the Water Supply pulldown

For weather information and forecasts from the National Weather
Service Office in Birmingham...go to:


For detailed web information concerning river stages and forecasts
for Central Alabama...go to:


For Precipitation Analysis...go to:


For Precipitation Forecasts...go to;


Questions/Comments?...Contact Roger McNeil, Service Hydrologist by
e-mail at roger.mcneil@noaa.gov or by phone at 205-664-3010.


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