984
FXUS63 KABR 251001
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
501 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-80 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  today. Some storms could be strong with hail and locally strong
  winds. The larger threat will be heavy rainfall with the
  potential to see at least 1 inch or more of rainfall which could
  lead to the possibility for localized flooding.

- Severe storm chances return Friday/Friday night, with a slight risk
  (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across most of central and
  northeast South Dakota.

- Heat and humidity return late this week through the weekend with
  additional chances for precipitation possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently increasing in
coverage early this morning across southern and central sections of
SD. This activity has been shifting north-northeastward into the
forecast area and will continue to expand and develop thanks to
persistent low level moisture advection and a slow moving warm front
situated across southern SD. Elevated instability and embedded
shortwave energy in southwest flow aloft will allow this trend to
persist through the morning hours. Precipitation chances today sit
at between 40-80 percent across the CWA.

A broad and persistent upper ridge remains centered across
southeastern sections of the United States while an upper trough
continues to reside across the western CONUS. Our region remains in
between these features with a steady southwest flow aloft
channeling low amplitude shortwave energy into the Northern Plains.
This synoptic pattern coupled with the long duration deep moisture
advection will set the stage for continued unsettled weather for our
area through Thursday. Dew point temperatures in the mid to upper
60s will advect into the forecast area today. The NAEFS and ENS
guidance continues to signal anomalously high PWAT values between
1.5 to 2.0 inches, which represents about 2-3 standard deviations
above climo, approaching the historical range for late June.
Probabilities of seeing 1 inch or more of rainfall within a 24 hour
period ending 12Z Thursday are highest(40-50%) across our far south
and east zones from around a Miller to Ortonville line and points
south and east. With soils already saturated from a similar pattern
roughly 10 to 12 days ago, the threat for heavy rainfall and
localized flooding could become problematic in those areas that
already have seen plenty of rainfall so far this month. In addition
to a heavy rainfall threat, a secondary concern will be strong to
potentially severe thunderstorms today. Instability and deep layer
shear values don`t look overly impressive in our area with MLCAPE
values between 1000-2000 J/kg and shear around 30 kts in our
south/southwest zones. SPC currently highlights most of central and
northeast SD and west central MN with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe weather today with the main threats being large hail and
strong winds.

On Thursday, the upper level trough axis will swing through the
area, helping to kick out the quasi-stationary frontal boundary and
associated low pressure system. Expecting precipitation chances(20-
40%) across our eastern zones during the morning into the early
afternoon before exiting the area to the east. Quasi-zonal flow
takes hold give our area more a less a brief respite from the active
weather by the second half of Thursday into the second half of the
day on Friday. Yet, another disturbance is progged to shift into the
Dakotas Friday afternoon and evening. Strong southerly flow out
ahead of this system during the day will allow high low level
moisture to persist with dew points in the mid 60s to around 70
degrees. This will lead to moderate to strong instability and in
combination with favorable deep layer shear leading to storm
development within a sfc trough. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds through the
evening. SPC currently has outlooked most of central and northeast
SD for a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather Friday
afternoon and Friday night.

For the weekend into early next week, the unsettled pattern looks to
persist Saturday into Sunday with a general 30-60% chance for
showers and storms. Timing and exact coverage of any of this
activity remains uncertain at this time. Zonal flow aloft will
become more northwesterly with time by late in the weekend into
early next week as an upper ridge builds across the western CONUS.
This feature may build far enough east to lead to a drier trend
early next week. What looks more certain is warm to hot temperatures
are likely to persist through this time frame along with high
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will deteriorate early this morning as MVFR/IFR
cigs move in with showers and thunderstorms. The lower cigs will
then remain through Wednesday afternoon. Vsby may also fall to
MVFR/IFR in heavier showers.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...20/Vipond