839
FXUS63 KAPX 130537
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
137 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower/storm chances linger along and south of M-55 Monday,
  especially near Saginaw Bay.

- Quiet weather expected for the first half of the long term.
  Potential of wildfire smoke pushing into Michigan this Tuesday
  remains possible.

- Showers return this Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging currently overhead will continue to slide east over New
England/northeast CONUS tonight into Monday as shortwave troughing
progresses over the far northern Great Lakes. Forcing provided by
this feature aloft will support a cyclone that will work across
northern Ontario/James Bay tonight and Monday. An attendant weak
cold front looks to sag across northern Michigan late tonight into
Monday morning.

Forecast Details:

Showers and thunderstorms this evening into tonight -- Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are expected to form along the
aforementioned front in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe
west of Lake Michigan across northern Wisconsin and the western U.P.
These showers/storms are expected to track into our area later this
evening -- beginning around 7-9 PM for the eastern U.P. and around 8-
11 PM for northwest lower. This activity will make its way across
the area tonight, largely exiting by early Monday morning. Weak
elevated buoyancy will be in place ahead of these showers/storms
(~250-500 J/kg MUCAPE) along with relatively strong deep layer shear
(~40 kts 0-6 km BWD). With fumes of instability and a relatively
thin elevated inflow layer, effective shear that any storms have to
work with may be much less (~20 kts) -- thus, leading to low
confidence in severe thunderstorm potential. A few strong storms
will be possible, with the primary hazards being gusty winds and
small hail. The most likely area for any strong storms will be areas
along and west of I-75 south of the bridge, where SPC has outlined a
Marginal Risk (1/5) for potential isolated severe storms.

Shower/storm chances linger Monday -- While mostly/partly sunny
skies with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s are in store for most
areas north of M-72 on Monday, scattered showers and storms will be
possible across areas along and south of M-55, with the best
chances/coverage expected near Saginaw Bay. Uncertainty remains in
how far south tonight`s cold front will work across the state,
leading to further uncertainty in rain/storm chances with northward
extent across the CWA during the day. Current confidence is that the
front will hang close enough to support aforementioned scattered
showers/storms near M-55 and south. However, should the front
advance further south than currently forecast, rain/thunder chances
may largely be confined south of the CWA. Otherwise, hazy skies may
be possible across the area on Monday as lingering Canadian wildfire
smoke is forecast to move overhead.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Current midlevel troughing over the Northeastern US continues to
progress northward to Newfoundland. A large jet core over the
southern half of the U.S continues to push height disturbances
across the Great Lakes region at times continuing chances of active
weather this week.

Shortwave troughing over the southwest will make its way to the
Central U.S at the start of the forecast period while a second
trough pivots across Ontario, leaving Michigan under a relatively
weak midlevel flow pattern with quiet weather through most of the
midweek. Active weather returns to the region towards the end of the
work week with a third trough from the north pushing showers into
the CWA.


Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Quiet weather expected for the first half of the long term.
Potential of wildfire smoke pushing into Michigan this Tuesday
remains possible: After Mondays small system departs east of Hudson
Bay, showers will be diminishing Monday night as weak flow aloft
keeps weather quiet through Thursday. Main focus on Tuesday is
potential Canadian wildfire smoke pushing into the CWA. Not enough
evidence of vertically integrated smoke to affect air quality, but a
red sunrise/sunset remains possible this Tuesday.

-Showers return this Friday and Saturday: Troughing currently over
the Pacific Northwest makes its way towards the Great Lakes region
by the end of the work week. Latest model runs depict showers and
even some chances of thunder on Saturday at times primarily driven
by frontal boundaries, but too early to give details on QPF, timing,
or potential impacts. At this time, no severe weather or heavy
rainfall is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered showers and a few TSRA will continue to move south of
our TAF sites...except perhaps for MBL, where showers could be
in the area off-and-on into Monday. With skies clearing behind
the precip, there`s a chance for some fog to form overnight,
but will wait and see for now. Otherwise VFR.

Northerly breezes develop on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ