916
FXUS63 KBIS 091730
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
Issued by National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly warmer temperatures with isolated afternoon and
  evening showers expected today.

- Warm and mainly dry trend expected Friday through Saturday.
  Some breezy to windy winds possible on Friday. Chances for
  isolated showers and thunderstorms could return Sunday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures along with periodic
  chances for showers and thunderstorms possible next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

This afternoon and evening, expecting showers to develop in
western North Dakota, but the question remaining is how much of
a hindrance dry air will be to precipitation reaching the
ground. Winds remain out of the NW/W this afternoon. Forecast
remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 927 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Winds are turning to the west from west to east this morning,
but are remaining lighter (5 - 10 MPH). Otherwise, forecast
remains on track.

UPDATE
Issued at 640 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Mid level disturbance continues to produce clouds across the
CWA. These could linger into the morning before additional
clouds and perhaps a few showers for this afternoon. Made slight
adjustments to sky grids based on current observations. There
are some areas in the west that are near or at saturation. A DOT
webcam near Beach also showing some patchy fog. Although not
expected to be widespread, placed in some patchy fog mention
this morning for some of these western areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A mid level boundary is currently bringing some increased cloud
cover across portions of the CWA this morning, and will slowly
drift south through the morning. An east to west ridge will keep
much of the area dry through the morning, with some clearing
skies away from this boundary. As this ridge moves through the
region and flattens later today, an increased amount of mid
level moisture along a secondary front will move back into the
area. This could bring some isolated showers this afternoon
through this evening, although dry air at the lower levels will
help limit these. Limited instability will also limit the
thunderstorm threat today. Temperatures today will be slightly
warmer than previous days, with some areas getting back into the
lower 70s. Northerly winds could become breezy at times today.
Dry air will diminish showers tonight. A steady north northwest
wind could be found, along with low temperatures in the 40s. A
clipper system then looks to push through eastern North Dakota
on Friday. The better dynamics for showers looks to be east of
our CWA, although there could still be some breezy to perhaps
windy northwest winds. Temperatures look to remain mild as the
cooler air with this system also looks to move in more east of
the CWA.

A northwest flow pattern then looks to settle in for this
weekend. This looks to also be a warming pattern as the ridge in
the Pacific Northwest flattens over the Northern Rockies and
brings about warming temperatures into the 70s for Saturday.
This could bring a steady westerly flow for Saturday. Afternoon
RH could also drop into the 20s to mid 30s. Some increased fire
weather concerns are possible, although recent rains have made
fuels quite green. A weak wave may move across the state in this
northwest flow pattern on Sunday. Isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms could be possible as a result,
although this wave would have to first overcome some of the dry
air in place. Temperatures look to remain mild and generally in
the 70s. Winds look to lessen slightly, and RH values also look
to slightly improve for Sunday, limiting fire weather concerns.

Clusters then indicate that a flattening ridge could lead to a
zonal flow pattern followed by perhaps a broad yet more
northerly position trough. The result of this could be periodic
chances for showers and thunderstorms early to mid next week.
Temperatures in this potential pattern may not be as warm, as
indicated by the broad spreads in the NBM. Of note though are
even the 25th percentiles forecast highs are close to normal. So
the potential for slightly above normal temperatures still
remains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Expect VFR conditions for all TAF sites through the period. A
brief lowering this afternoon and evening is possible with SHRA
passing through the region, but TS are not expected. Winds will
remain gusty around 20 - 25 kts this afternoon, and lessen to 5 -
10 kt overnight. Higher winds expected once again in the area,
but this time a bit more east (JMS will see highest gusts on
Friday).

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FGF/AH
DISCUSSION...Anglin
AVIATION...FGF/AH