218
FXUS64 KBRO 061741 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1241 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The main weather highlight through the short term period is the
continuation of above normal temperatures and the onset of a warming
trend across Deep South Texas. Persistent low level southerly to
southeasterly flow will allow for continued Gulf moisture advection
across the region as nearly zonal flow aloft prevails. Although this
morning will start off cloudy and mild as stratus clouds blanket
Deep South Texas, partly cloudy skies are expected by the afternoon
hours. Increased insolation should allow for high temperatures to
warm into the low 80s across the Lower Texas beaches to upper 90s
across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with higher dew points,
the heat index will rise above 100 degrees region wide... with the
exception being across the Lower Texas beaches where heat indices
will be in the 90s.

Another mild and humid night is expected tonight with lows in the
70s region wide. Patchy fog may develop after midnight across
portions of Deep South Texas. Otherwise, expect low clouds to
develop once again tonight and persist into late Tuesday morning.
Temperatures and heat index values on Tuesday will be 2-7 degrees
warmer than Monday afternoon, with high temperatures likely reaching
100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains and heat indices above 110
degrees across portions of the region. Heat Advisory headlines may
be needed Tuesday afternoon for portions of Deep South Texas due to
the combination of above normal temperatures and high humidity.
Those spending time outdoors should take the necessary precautions
against the heat, including staying hydrated, taking frequent
breaks, and wearing light/loose-fitting clothing. For the Lower
Texas beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents will prevail through
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

The aforementioned HEAT ADVISORY conditions will persist Wednesday
and Thursday as well above normal daytime high temperatures occur
on both of those days. This synoptic situation will be the result
of a dryline easing into the BRO CWFA from the west, producing a
downsloping effect off of the higher terrain of neighboring Mexico.

Fortunately, a weak cold front will ease from north to south
through the region late Thursday night or early Friday morning.
Much more seasonal daytime highs are anticipated for Friday
through Sunday. An additional bonus will be the possibility of
isolated showers and thunderstorms during the weekend courtesy of
the cold front and a possibly secondary frontal passage as the
weekend draws to a close.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

While mostly VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon at
all the TAF sites. MVFR conditions are expected to return tonight
and even some IFR conditions are possible during the overnight
hours as well. Some models hinted on the possibility of LIFR
conditions during the late overnight hours, but confidence for
them was low at this point. MVFR conditions are expected to return
for the morning hours tomorrow. Light southeasterly winds are
expected to persist at all the TAF sites for the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Generally light to moderate southeast winds and moderate seas
will prevail over the Gulf waters and the Laguna Madre. Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions cannot be ruled out this
afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, especially across the Laguna
Madre where occasional gusts near 20 knots will be possible.

(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory conditions
will exist along the Lower Texas Coast Wednesday through Friday
due to an enhanced pressure gradient and the subsequent passage
of a cold front. Outside of this time period, generally moderate
winds and seas are forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             90  77  92  78 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               93  75  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 95  77  97  78 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  77  83  78 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     88  77  90  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli
AVIATION...64-Katz