Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281946
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
346 PM EDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With the cold front now east of Vermont, we are looking at a period
of dry weather continuing through most of the weekend. A few showers
will be possible on Sunday but these should be isolated at best.
Gusty winds in the 25 to 35 mph range on Friday and Saturday will
make it feel chilly given temperatures in the 40s. Attention then
turns to a strong storm system that is expected to bring rain and
snow to the region the next midweek period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 PM EDT Thursday...It took nearly all day but the cold front
has finally pushed through Vermont. There remain a few showers right
on the back edge of the cold front but rain showers are quickly
coming to an end across the region this afternoon. Water vapor
imagery shows a plethora of dry air across Ontario this afternoon
which should situate across our region overnight. Pretty
impressive cold air advection is slated to occur tonight and
through the day on Friday. This should help our temperatures
return to more normal values on Friday but should also aid in
bringing some gusty winds to the area. With ample sunshine and a
pocket of cold air aloft, we expect to see some very steep
lapse rates into the afternoon and evening hours on Friday. This
should allow for widespread wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph
range with the possibility of a few 40 mph wind gusts. These
gusty winds will likely continue into the evening and begin to
weaken as we head into Saturday but should remain gusty through
the forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 PM EDT Thursday...Saturday will be fairly similar to Friday
weatherwise, just less windy. As the gradient relaxes, flow will
favor mainly 15 to 25 mph wind gusts with daytime mixing. A
lingering shower near summits is possible, but generally
abundant dry air means nil PoPs. High temperatures will be in
the 40s to near 50. Temperatures will cool well initially, but
then with mid and high clouds moving in advance of a decaying
system, we will see mid 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 341 PM EDT Thursday...Transitioning from Saturday night into
Sunday morning, the decaying system will bring some rain and snow to
the region. PoPs increase first from convergence along the trough
and a modest 115kt upper jet streak to our south. By Sunday
afternoon, mid-level cold advection and daytime heating will result
in conditionally unstable profiles capable of isolated convection
while an embedded feature moves overhead on the backside of
larger scale troughing. QPF will be a few hundredths, if any,
mainly weak forcing for ascent, lack of deep moisture, and
little cloud ice present.

Monday appears to take pick-of-the-week. Light north winds and
abundant sunshine will result in 50s across the region, and then mid
20s to mid 30s at night. Much of Tuesday appears pleasant as well.
Cool, dry north winds will result in similar weather just a few
degrees cooler than Monday.

The weather becomes active Tuesday evening into the rest of the
week. There`s some dynamic interplay between a vigorous trough
across the Central US and a polar trough making a deep dive south-
southeast towards the Great Lakes, and then pinwheeling shortwaves
south of Greenland where a late season Greenland block exists.
Boiling this down, it will very likely snow with a very favorable
pattern midweek through Friday. Precipitation Tuesday night into
Wednesday will likely feature the classic, elevation-dependent
valley rain-snow mix and snow at higher elevations. Though early
guidance suggests enough of a warm nose south to suggest a potential
mix early Wednesday as well. There will likely be adjustments, as
the strength of southerly flow will be dependent on convection in
the central US on Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Wednesday
night into Thursday look cool enough for a transition into all snow
as the upper low tightens up. Due to the blocking pattern, the
coastal low will only slowly trundle eastwards resulting in wrap
around snow showers and maybe some rain mixed in at lower elevations
Thursday afternoon. Between Tuesday night and Thursday, there`s
about 0.50-1.25" of QPF total. Though the mechanics work somewhat
differently between each model suite, there is generally good
agreement with this system. Given some differences due to convective
processes and how this affects temperatures that are near to above
freezing during large chunks of a long-duration event, it`s hard to
say how much will be snow versus rain. Yet, confidence has increased
for appreciable snow accumulations. Models split by next Friday as
to how quickly the upper low shifts east, but that lies at the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...It`s a tale of two stories behind and ahead
of a cold front draped across Vermont this afternoon. Behind the
front, a mix of mostly VFR with MVFR conditions are being seen
with IFR to LIFR ahead of the front. The front will continue to
make slow progress eastward this afternoon and evening with
conditions at KRUT, KMPV, and KEFK improving by 00Z. Winds will
remain light from the NW this afternoon and will begin to
become gusty after 14Z Friday with gusts up to 30 knots possible
by later in the day Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Haynes
AVIATION...Clay


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.