778
FXUS61 KBUF 301800
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
200 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will make its way across the region this
afternoon and evening while generating some showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be
east of the Genesee valley. Fair dry weather will then return
tonight and persist through at least Friday morning. Meanwhile...
temperatures will remain solidly above normal for the foreseeable
future.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A negatively tilted mid level trough will exit the Upper Great Lakes
to central Ontario this afternoon...while an associated cold front
will slowly cross our forecast area through the first half of
tonight. A 60 mile wide band of generally light showers will move
across the region during the remainder of the afternoon. The
exception will be across the IAG Frontier where the showers are
already in the process of tapering off.

The showers will become more widespread east of the Genesee valley
where...with the help of some diurnally induced instability...there
may even be a few thunderstorms. The greatest chance for any storms
will be over the Finger Lakes region and points east where there
will be a small risk for some stronger storms that could generate
locally heavy rain and wind gusts to 45 mph. Otherwise...basin
average rainfall will be UNDER a tenth of an inch or less.

The showers will continue to taper off from west to east later this
afternoon and early evening. While the showers will come to an
end...a light flow aloft will enable much of the cloud cover to
persist for the greater part of tonight. The exception to this will
be across the Southern Tier where clearing seen on VSB/IR imagery
over northwest Ohio should make its way into the area.

The clearing will continue Wednesday morning...as a progressive mid
level shortwave ridge and associated weak sfc high will cross our
forecast area. The fair dry weather on Wednesday will be
accompanied by max temps that will range from the mid 60s across the
Eastern Lake Ontario region to the low and mid 70s over the western
counties.

A compact shortwave will pass by to our north Wednesday night. This
will drive a moisture starved cold front through our region. While
there will be slgt to low chc pops near and east of Lake Ontario...
the passage will be marked by nothing more than patchy clouds and
subtle wind shift to mark the occasion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure centered to our north will nose southwards across
the region on Thursday. This will support fair dry weather
Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next surface low will be in the midst of passing north
across the Upper Midwest into Ontario, Canada on Friday.
Bountiful warm moist air will continue to advect into the region
Friday, where a few afternoon showers will be possible.

As this surface low continues to progress northward across Canada,
its associated surface cold front will cross from west to east
across the Great Lakes Friday night through Sunday. There continues
to remain some uncertainty with the exact timing and therefore held
PoPs to just a chance for now.

Brief surface high pressure will then slide across the Great Lakes
Sunday night thorugh Monday, causing any lingering showers to
gradually deplete from west to east.

Overall, temperatures will continue to remain above average through
the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR to IFR cigs across far western New York early this afternoon
will give way to VFR weather towards this evening. Meanwhile...a
swath of light to occasionally moderate shower activity will push
east across the remainder of the region. Cigs will drop to IFR
levels as this pcpn moves through.

As we work through tonight...VFR weather will return to the Southern
Tier. For the majority of the region though...a period of VFR
weather will once again give way to IFR cigs as we work through the
overnight.

On Wednesday...IFR to MVFR cigs in the morning will give way to VFR
weather regionwide.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
Saturday...MVFR to VFR with showers likely and possible
thunderstorms.
Sunday...Morning showers otherwise mainly VFR weather.

&&

.MARINE...
A quiet week is expected on the lower Great Lakes as the pressure
gradients remains weak. Winds will generally remain 15 knots or
less. There will periodic showers or thunderstorms today before
dry weather returns for the mid week period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...TMA