994
FXUS61 KBUF 242327
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
727 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Relief from the hot and humid weather is on the way as a cold front
will pass south across the area tonight, though a few isolated
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may accompany it. In
the wake of the front, more seasonable weather will last though the
later half of the week, though it will continue to remain on the
muggy side with the possibility for showers and thunderstorms each
day through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to retreat into the
southeast CONUS through tonight. Concurrently, a cold front
extending from a departing low across far eastern Quebec will
gradually sag southward into our region, reaching the NY/PA border
by late Wednesday morning. This will bring some eventual relief from
the sultry conditions, though the tradeoff will be a return to more
unsettled pattern. A few widely scattered thunderstorms will be
possible closer to the front in the North Country and lake breeze
boundaries further south, though this activity should stay away from
the lake shadowed areas northeast of both lakes. While shear is
rather low, lots of available diurnal instability early this
afternoon could bring a stronger storm or two to the region.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish following the setting sun
this evening, though lower-end chances will linger into tonight as
the front eases through the region. This activity is expected to
become reinvigorated closer to the NY/PA border as diurnal
instability grows through the day Wednesday, with drier weather
prevailing further north. PWATs will remain very high around 1.8" so
could see some heavy potential should any storms train over any
hydro-sensitive areas in the Southern Tier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An anomalously strong ridge across southeast U.S. will weaken
Wednesday night through Thursday. The ridge will then persist across
the southeast U.S. into the weekend. The forecast area will be on
the top of the ridge where a corridor of anomalously high PWAT air
will be overhead. A surface low over the northern Plains Thursday
will move northeast of the forecast area through Friday night,
resulting in a warm front moving north across the forecast area by
Friday. This period will be unsettled with chances of showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for training thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall

A unidirectional westerly flow will set-up across the forecast area
Thursday with weak 850mb-300mb flow. PWATS from the NAEFS are in the
97th percentile for this time of year. A warm front will be located
across Ohio and Pennsylvania Thursday morning. The front is forecast
to move northward through Friday. There is heightened risk that
training thunderstorms could cause localized flash flooding across
the southern portion of western NY Thursday through Thursday night.
There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall across western NY
with a better chance south of New York at this time. The severe
threat remains low on Thursday, due to the stable northeast flow
across much of the forecast area, thunderstorms and heavy rain may
be only confined to far southern portions of the forecast area.
Cooler air aloft, clouds, and rain will lead to temperatures in the
upper 70s and 80s Thursday. A northeast wind and drier air across
north-central NY will result in low to mid 70s Thursday.

Warmer air aloft will enter the forecast area Friday, however clouds
and rain/thunderstorms will likely keep highs in the 80s. Increasing
instability and mid-level flow will increase chances for showers and
storms Friday, with the greatest threat for strong winds and
localized flash flooding. There is uncertainty with the speed and
location of the warm front Thursday night through Friday night which
decreases confidence in convective initiation.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The pattern for the long term period will have mainly zonal flow
Saturday and Sunday before a trough builds into the Upper Great
Lakes early next week. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase towards early next week as a cold front approaches from the
north.

Above normal temperatures will slowly increase day by day through
Monday. A cold front may knock temperatures back to near normal
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through tonight as a strong ridge
of high pressure retreats southward to the Mid-Atlantic states. A
slow moving cold front across southern Ontario this afternoon will
gradually sag southward into the region, likely bringing a few
widely scattered thunderstorms through this evening. Confidence is
low in potential impacts at any of the TAF sites, though the highest
activity is expected north and northeast of KART.

The boundary will move through the forecast area late tonight before
stalling across northern PA. Instability for thunderstorm
development/maintenance will be greatly diminished, though some
residual cloud cover and scattered showers will be possible across
western NY overnight. Depending on the amount of clearing patchy fog
may develop in the Southern Tier, potentially impacting vsbys at
KJHW.

Additional shower and thunderstorm development is likely in the
Southern Tier Wednesday, mainly after 15z. This may bring localized
MVFR cigs/vsbys with VFR prevailing further north.

Outlook...

Thursday...A few showers and thunderstorms likely at times. Mainly
VFR, with local/brief restrictions in thunderstorms.

Friday...Restrictions likely with more widespread shower and
thunderstorm development expected.

Saturday...Improvement to mainly VFR with chances for showers and
thunderstorms diminishing from northwest to southeast.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure settling southeast towards the Mid Atlantic
will allow low pressure to move east across central and northern
Quebec. Little pressure gradient between these two surface features
will maintain light to moderate southwest winds supporting a
moderate chop at times on both Lakes Erie and Ontario.

A weak cold front associated with the aforementioned surface low
will sag south across the area tonight, shifting winds to be
northeast Wednesday and lasting into the end of the week and
supporting at times a light to moderate chop. A few rounds of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms (and locally higher
gusts associated with the stronger storms) will be possible each day
starting today and lasting through the end of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/PP
NEAR TERM...PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK/SW
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...EAJ/PP