Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 250535
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
135 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...06z TAF Aviation Forecast Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure glides east this tonight as low pressure centered
over the Central Plains approaches the region. This low will
lift a warm front northeast across the region on Tuesday,
followed by a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. High
pressure builds back into the area for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM EDT Update...
Mostly clear skies with scattered cirrus will persist through
tonight. Clouds will gradually increase from the west late
tonight into Monday, but dry weather will prevail until late
Monday night.

Previous Discussion...
High pressure has allowed for tranquil and dry weather today
across the region. Expect for clear skies to gradually fill in
with high level clouds throughout the evening and overnight
hours tonight ahead of our next weather system. We`ll remain dry
through much of the day on Monday before precipitation chances
gradually ramp up overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Breezy conditions ahead of the system with gusts to 25 MPH
possible during the afternoon hours on Monday. Southeasterly winds
will ramp up Monday night into Tuesday morning with wind gusts
35-40 MPH late Monday night. Higher gusts possible in
downsloping in Erie, PA.

Low temperatures tonight settle in the low to mid 30s. High
temperatures under WAA on Monday will rise into the mid 60s for
most, mid 50s across Northwest Pennsylvania. Overnight lows on
Monday night drop into the mid 40s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday is still looking like a wet and breezy day as a strong
mid/upper shortwave trough lifts into the western Great Lakes, with
the left exit of a 140-150 knot H3 jet streak supporting a surface
low deepening to near 990 mb as it reaches Lake Superior by evening.
Strong warm/moist advection driven by a 45-50+ knot low-level jet in
response to the aforementioned upper level dynamics will lead to
abundant isentropic ascent along and ahead of a warm frontal
boundary that will progress east during the morning, so expect
widespread showers to quickly progress from west to east after
sunrise. The system is trending more progressive, and the widespread
clouds and showers will also greatly limit instability (no
convection expected), so this will keep QPF in check and eliminate
any flooding concerns. Still, everyone will see rain Tuesday morning
into the afternoon with generally 0.25 to 0.50 inches expected, with
the highest amounts west of I-71. As the deepening low lifts toward
Lake Superior later Tuesday afternoon and evening, a dry slot looks
to punch in as we become entrenched in the warm sector, so cut PoPs
back to chance to low end likely. One more band of showers will
progress east across the region Tuesday night as the trailing cold
front moves through. Coverage and QPF will be much less given weaker
moisture flux ahead of the boundary, but a somewhat coupled jet
structure with a 130+ knot H3 jet across the Appalachians will
squeeze out some additional rain, so have likely PoPs everywhere
Tuesday night.

Most areas will be dry Wednesday, but chances for scattered showers
are trending longer into the day for eastern Ohio and western PA
since the surface and mid/upper lows will become vertically stacked
while slowly lifting toward James Bay Wednesday and Wednesday night.
This combined with a secondary wave of low pressure developing on
the frontal boundary over the SE U.S. will slow down the cold
front`s eastward exit, so held onto chance PoPs for eastern Ohio and
western PA Wednesday into early Wednesday night before finally
ending completely as strong surface high pressure builds eastward
into the Ohio Valley.

Highs in the mid 50s/low 60s Tuesday will cool into the upper
40s/low 50s in most areas Wednesday, but upper 50s will hold in
eastern Ohio and western PA where the frontal boundary hangs. Lows
Tuesday night will drop into the low/mid 40s, then will be much
colder Wednesday night as the high builds in, with upper 20s/low 30s
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The end of the week will be quiet and seasonably cool as broad
mid/upper troughing over the eastern CONUS gradually progresses
eastward while a huge dome of surface high pressure centered over
the Midwest gradually becomes centered over the Tennessee Valley.
This will lead to lots of sunshine with highs in the upper 40s/low
50s Thursday and upper 40s/mid 50s Friday. Further height rises are
expected next weekend as a large upper low moves into California,
forcing quasi-zonal flow across the central and eastern CONUS. This
will support moderating temperatures, but a strong northern stream
jet that will be trying to push back south through the weekend will
send shortwave energy across the southern Great Lakes along what
could be an active baroclinic zone. Guidance differs on timing and
strength of these features, so limited PoPs to slight chance to
chance for now with highs in the low/upper 50s Saturday and
mid/upper 50s on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours for this TAF
update. Mostly clear to fair weather skies are expected this
morning. High level cloudiness will increase during the
afternoon into tonight but remain in the VFR category through 06z
Tuesday. Winds will gradually become easterly to southeasterly
later this morning and continue from the southeast into tonight.
Winds will also gradually increase 10 to 15 knots later this
morning and further increase to 13 to 18 knots by tonight. Gusty
winds up to 25 knots will return after 15z today and continue
through the end of the timeframe. ERI may see localized
downsloping tonight with higher winds of 20 knots with gusts
over 35 knots possible overnight into Tuesday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers late Monday night
through early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds have picked up to 15-20 knots in the western basin
this afternoon. The strongest winds are in the open waters, and the
duration will be short before winds diminish and become more SE
tonight, so held off on a Small Craft headline. As the winds become
SE tonight, they will decrease to 10-15 knots, with SE winds of 10-
15 knots continuing Monday before turning S to SE and increasing to
15-25 knots Monday night and Tuesday. Small Craft headlines are
possible Monday night and Tuesday. Winds will turn W to SW and
decrease to 10-15 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday, with W winds of
5-15 knots Wednesday night through Friday, so no concerns are
expected on the lake for mid to late week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Maines
SHORT TERM...Garuckas
LONG TERM...Garuckas
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Garuckas


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