933
AXPZ20 KNHC 090932
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 09 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is over
northern Colombia, west-southwestward to 07N78W to 07N84W and
northwestward to 12N90W and southwestward to 11N99W to 08N105W
to 10N116W to 08N121W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ begins and continues to 06N125W to 07N130W and to
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate strong convection is seen
within 120 nm N of the trough between 101W-105W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm N of the
trough between 106W-109W. Scattered moderate within 60 nm of
09N92W and 05N114W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure is centered well N of the area. A broad
ridge extends southward from the high across the regional
Pacific waters and weakly southeast over the offshore waters of
Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure
extends northward along the entire coast of California. The
pressure gradient between the high pressure and this area of low
pressure is generally allowing for moderate northwest winds over
the offshore waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lucas and
for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds S of Cabo San
Lucas. Seas across most of the Baja waters are 6 to 8 ft, except
7 to 10 ft in northwest swell N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the
Gulf of California, winds are moderate, southwest to west in
direction except for gentle west winds over the central part of
the Gulf. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 3 ft, except 5 to 7 ft in
southwest swell at the entrance of the Gulf and 3 to 4 ft over
the northern part. Elsewhere over the south and southwestern
Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate, west to
northwest in direction, and become onshore across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, while seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure that is well N of the
local area will shift westward today, then southward and weaken
through the weekend. This will maintain moderate northwest winds
offshore Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro and generally
moderate to fresh northwest winds S of Cabo San Lazaro through
the weekend. Norhwest swell will continue to move into the Baja
offshore waters through Fri, with seas in excess of 8 ft
persisting across the waters N through W of Punta Eugenia through
tonight before subsiding. Gentle to locally moderate west to
northwest winds along with moderate seas are expected elsewhere
across the S and southwestern Mexican offshore waters through Mon
night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A rather weak pressure pattern is in place over this part of
the area. Atmospheric moisture has substantially increased
here during the past 48 hours as the typical monsoonal
circulation for this time of year becomes seasonally established.
Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over most of these waters, except for isolated
showers and thunderstorms E of 84W including over some sections
of Central America and southwestern Caribbean. Some of this
activity may be accompanied by gusty winds at times and moderate
to rough seas. Frequent lighting may also accompany the activity
once it begins to exhibit a clustering pattern today. Winds
remain light and variable and seas moderate, 4 to 5 ft in S
swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands,
winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW in direction along
with seas of 5 to 6 ft in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest
winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, roughly along 09N,
through Fri, which will feed moisture into shower and
thunderstorm activity currently over the area waters. This
activity will shift slowly westward of 90W by Fri afternoon.
Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere along with
moderate seas in a south swell. Otherwise, new southerly swell
entering the region will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the
Galapagos Islands through Sun, and build briefly to near 8 ft Fri
night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1034 mb is centered well N of the
discussion area. Broad ridging extends from it southward across
the subtropical waters between 110W and 140W. The gradient
related to this ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest
to north winds are north of 25N between 120W and 1305W. Overnight
ASCAT data indicates that gentle to moderate north to northeast
winds are present elsewhere north of 20N between 122W and 130W.
These winds become northeast to east W of 130W. Seas across this
area N of 20N are 6 to 8 ft in northwest swell, except 7 to 10
ft north of 27N and E of about 130W. S of 20N between the ridge
and the ITCZ and W of 120W, moderate to locally fresh northeast
to northeast to east winds along with seas of and 6 to 8 ft seas
in northeast swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds are present as seen in overnight ASCAT
data. Seas with these winds are 6 to 8 ft due to mixed southeast
and southwest swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of
the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the
ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area
gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small pockets of seas
to 8 ft are expected across the trade winds zone through Fri,
then subside slightly through Sun. Northwest swell across the
Baja California Norte waters producing seas of 7 to 10 ft will
change little through this afternoon, then subside below 8 ft
late by Fri night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
Aguirre