Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 270443

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Finally seeing some very light rain or sprinkles moving through
portions of the Lake of the Woods region. Ceilings are still
pretty high, so do not expect much from these echoes. Winds are
switching to the northwest across the western FA, with increasing
winds expected again by late night.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Gusty north-northwest winds will diminish early this evening and
then turn west and then southwest ahead of next front which will
enter the northern forecast area toward midnight and then push
through late tonight. Another windy day on Friday with a north
wind 20 to 30 mph and higher gusts in the RRV. Borderline wind adv
criteria but like today just a tad below. Also a band of showers
in Manitoba Interlake region will reach parts of NW MN this
evening/tonight. Not much rainfall with these as they will move
through quickly. 850 mb relative humidity increases in the cold
advection behind this system with likely stratocu cloud cover
increase into NW MN and the RRV.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Friday night to Saturday night

Jet stream shifts north and east of
the area through the period. Surface high pressure will be over
southern Canada Fri night will move east of the area Fri. return
flow will bring more moisture into the area. Upper level ridge in
the western US will shift over the area Sat night. Relatively dry
through this period.

Sun - Wed

Flow aloft become southwest. Short wave in the flow may bring a
chance for precip Mon. Nice upper level jet forecast to move into
the Northern Plains around Tue. Significant piece an an upper level
trough will move out into the Plains Tue and bring a chance for
showers/thunder to the area. For now precip expected to affect the
south and east zones.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

The first batch of mainly mid level ceilings are moving through
northwest Minnesota right now. These are producing a few sprinkles
of rain, but these will not last very much longer. Winds are
already turning back to the northwest across the KDVL area, and
this wind switch will continue to move east overnight. Gusty
northwest to north winds will kick in again by later tonight
through most of the day Friday. Models are also showing the
potential for some MVFR ceilings at KGFK/KTVF/KBJI for a while on
Friday. Decreasing winds and clearing skies should arrive by late
Friday afternoon into the early evening.


Issued at 337 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Moderate flooding continues at Oslo with water levels expected to
remain at moderate flood stage through the remainder of the week and
into early next week. Hillsboro and Alvarado have recently dropped
into minor flood stage and are expected to continue to recede.

The Red River at Drayton and Pembina are the only forecast points
that are expected to continue rising with Drayton currently in minor
flood stage and Pembina reaching minor stage by the weekend. Both
points should begin to recede by early next week.




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