Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 182014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
314 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

The area is currently under an upper level ridge with a
disturbance moving northeastward across the western Dakotas. This
disturbance will bring snow across the western Dakotas this
evening...reaching eastern ND late tonight. Light snow
accumulations are expected during the day on Monday as a lot of
melting is expected with temps near freezing and the fact that
it`s falling during the day. Monday night, there`s a better chance
of snow sticking as the system moves east across MN. Models vary
somewhat on the amount of liquid this system will produce, with
the peak coming in around 0.3 to 0.4" in far southeast ND. While
most of it will be snow, the impacts may be rather limited given a
lot of it will fall during the day on Monday and melt on
roadways. Still, 1-4" is expected across the Devils Lake Basin,
central/southern Red River Valley, and east to Wadena.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Any lingering snow across northwest and western Minnesota will
gradually diminish to the southeast throughout the day on Tuesday. A
building surface high and upper level ridging will allow for calm
weather for Wednesday and Thursday. Southerly return flow during
this time will allow afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper
30s and low 40s.

A late season winter system is expected to impact the region during
the Friday to Saturday time frame. Current guidance suggests an
upper level shortwave ejecting out over the northern Rockies will
bring west to southwesterly flow aloft. As this occurs an elongated
region of lee troughing will invoke strong northward advection of
precipitable water into the central and northern Plains.
Deterministic guidance show a strong QPF signal of 0.5" to 1.0" over
the Dakotas. Likewise, GEFS ensemble mean QPF ranks well above the
95th percentile (compared to model climate) for the Fri-Sat
timeframe. Deterministic guidance also suggests that frontogenetical
forcing may lead to mesoscale banding and locally higher precip
totals. However, at this time there is still considerable
uncertainty as to where the heaviest precipitation will be placed.
Dominant precip type will likely be a rain/snow mix during the day
as afternoon temperatures warm to just above freezing with snow
during the overnight hours. Although models are currently showing a
relatively strong signal, there is still much uncertainty with this
forecast. Details such as precip timing, placement, type, and
amounts along with any impacts will become more clear through next


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Mar 18 2018

MVFR CIGs and light winds expected to persist as airmass remains
relatively stationary over the next 24 hours. Northeasterly low
level flow does develop this evening and overnight though flow
appears too weak to allow for drier air to reach the valley, BJI
and TVF may see improvement. At DVL expecting snow and IFR CIGs
by morning.




SHORT TERM...Knutsvig
AVIATION...JK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.