541
FXUS64 KMEG 161717
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1217 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will return to east Arkansas and the
Missouri Bootheel this afternoon and overspread all of the
Midsouth overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
Friday and Saturday with dry conditions returning Sunday. One to
two inches of rain is expected. Warm and dry conditions return
Sunday and continue into early next week. High temperatures early
next week could climb into the low 90s. Showery conditions are
expected to return by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak ridge is currently shifting across the Midsouth with weak
surface high pressure centered along or just east of the
Mississippi River. Both of these features will shift east over
the next 12-18 hours, becoming centered over east TN and the
Alabama-Georgia state line this afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will return to east Arkansas and the Missouri
Bootheel this afternoon and overspread all of the Midsouth
overnight.

Out west an open wave southern stream trough will shift out of
the Four-Corners Area into West Texas Oklahoma and Kansas. This
pattern will set up southwest flow across most of the Mississippi
River Valley with a 100-110kt subtropical jet becoming oriented
from southwest Texas, across the ArkLaTex into the Midsouth by
Friday morning. Dew points will climb in the middle to upper 60s
by Friday afternoon, but cooler temperatures, clouds and ongoing
precipitation will limit our instability. CAPE should struggle to
exceed 800 J/kg. Dynamic support is not expected to be very
impressive either featuring 03-kt SRH generally below 150m^2/s^2.
Any significant LLJ is non existent. However, 700-500mb Lapse
rates up to 8.5C/km could support some large hail. Most of the
Midsouth should remain north of a warm front until well after
sunset with a cold front quickly moving across the region
overnight. As a result, thunderstorms should remain elevated
resulting in the main threat of large hail and possibly some
damaging wind. The higher severe threat should remain well to our
south. Convective parameters weaken overnight, limiting the severe
threat, but storms featuring frequent lightning will likely
continue through the night.

Post frontal showers and a few general thunderstorms will continue
Saturday, ending overnight.

NBM probabilistic QPF guidance through Friday afternoon shows
about a 25-35% chance of 1 inch or greater rainfall across most of
the Midsouth but about a 40-50 percent chance south of a line
from Tupelo to Clarksdale, MS.

Expect a quick warming trend Sunday into next week. High
temperatures Monday and Tuesday may climb into the low 90s
across a large portion of the Midsouth. Tupelo, MS reached 90
degrees May 9th of this year, but the last time multiple climate
sites in the Midsouth (Tupelo, MS, NWS Memphis, Memphis
International, Jackson, TN and Jonesboro, AR) reached 90 degrees
was around October 3rd of 2023. That run looks increasingly likely
to end early next week. Most of the Midsouth should be about 3-5
degrees below record highs early next week.

At Memphis, NBM`s probabilistic max temperature guidance on
Monday ranges from a highest reasonable temperature of 95 degrees
to a lowest reasonable temperature of 88. We have increased our
forecast to 90 degrees. Mostly dry conditions are expected Sunday
and Monday. Our next chance of showers and thunderstorms
returns late Tuesday and continue through midweek.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

High pressure continues to impact the Mid-South this afternoon,
aiding light and variable winds at all sites. Shortly after
sunset, high pressure will push east and winds will increase to
around 6 kts. Overnight, shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase ahead of a cold front. However, confidence for thunder
remains low with the latest CAMs keeping activity near JBR.
Decided to keep PROB30 -TSRA at all sites due to the TCF depicting
sparse to medium coverage through midmorning Friday. Otherwise,
expect MVFR to IFR CIGs to overspread the area tonight and last
through the remainder of the period.

ANS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...ANS