663
FXUS64 KMEG 091125
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
625 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

A cold front will push through north Mississippi today. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front. A few
thunderstorms could be severe with large hail and damaging winds
possible. The front will stall out across central Mississippi
tonight with scattered thunderstorms possible across north
Mississippi. High pressure will build into the region on Friday
with dry and cooler weather for the weekend. An upper level low
pressure system will move across the region bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to upper 70s.
Currently, thunderstorms extend across the southern half of the
region. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe with
damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes possible. A Tornado Watch
remains in effect until 10 AM CDT. A cold front is just north of
the main area of thunderstorms. The Flood Watch will be allowed to
expire at 7 AM CDT.

As the cold front moves into central Mississippi, the
thunderstorms will move out of the Mid-South this afternoon.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side today with highs in the
mid to upper 80s. The front will stall out across central
Mississippi tonight with a few thunderstorms possible across
portions of north Mississippi. Cooler air will start to move into
northern sections of the Mid-South tonight with lows Friday
morning in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will build into the region on Friday with dry
weather expected. Temperatures will be below normal on Friday with
highs in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees. The surface high will
be east of the region for the weekend. This will mean dry weather
and warmer temperatures are expected for Saturday and Sunday.

An upper level trough will move across the Plains on Monday and
into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are possible across the region from Monday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below
normal during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across portions of
north Mississippi during the morning hours. MVFR ceilings will
remain over north Mississippi this morning, otherwise VFR
conditions are expected. A few thunderstorms may develop over
portions of north Mississippi tonight but confidence is low that
any of them will effect the KTUP area. Winds will shift from the
south to the west later today and then to the northwest tonight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...ARS