209
FXUS62 KRAH 161503
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1103 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build over the region today and tonight.
An upper level disturbance will move in from the southwest Friday,
then an upper level trough will slowly move eastward through the Mid
South and Carolinas Saturday through Sunday, bringing unsettled
weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1100 AM Thursday...

Water vapor imagery shows dry NW flow aloft across central NC,
between mid/upper ridging over the TN Valley and a departing closed
low off the NJ coast. The next trough that will affect our region
tomorrow is currently over the Desert Southwest. At the surface,
minimal flow is expected as weak high pressure to our west gradually
moves east through tonight. Visible satellite depicts broken
stratocumulus across much of central NC which will continue to lift
and scatter out through the afternoon. Low-level thicknesses
slightly higher than yesterday and enough breaks in the clouds will
support high temperatures in the upper-70s to lower-80s, which is
near normal. This evening from about 23z to 05z, the CAMS are
consistently depicting a very weak upper disturbance bringing a few
showers south across the northern Piedmont and northern/central
Coastal Plain, so carry slight chance POPs there. There may be just
enough instability (CAPE around 500 J/kg or less) to support some
thunder, and the SPC did add our northern counties in a risk for
general thunder, but with minimal shear, no severe weather is
expected. Patchy fog can`t be ruled out once again late tonight and
early tomorrow morning across the Piedmont as winds die off. Lows
will be in the mid-50s to lower-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Increasing rain chances again late Friday and Friday night.

There is not significant model agreement on the timing of the shower
chances with the next approaching mid/upper trough. It appears that
Friday will be mostly dry with increasing POP late afternoon and
evening, especially in the west. Then, POP ramps up Friday night.
The latest CAM solutions are indicating some of the initial
heavier rains to remain from MS/AL to GA Friday night - where
the stronger convection may track. For now, expect increasing
cloudiness Friday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. A chance
of showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly in the south and west
in the afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms become likely
Friday night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 354 AM Thursday...

As Friday night showers and storms linger into Saturday, medium and
long range models are still varying slightly for coverage of
rainfall on Saturday. Consistently though, Saturday afternoon/early
evening have the best chance for thunderstorms especially over the
southern portion of the FA. PW values increase in the afternoon and
evening hours to 1.5-1.9 inches which is well above the daily mean.
With the surface low moving over the region (or just south of our
region) SPC has increased the threat across the entire CWA for
severe storms Saturday to a Marginal risk (level 1/5). WPC has
continued to forecast a marginal risk for flash flooding across much
of the Southeast Saturday as the disturbance moves from the Gulf
states up into the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers and storms will
linger into late Saturday night and Sunday morning before beginning
to clear west to east late Sunday. A few isolated showers linger
along the Coastal Plain as the low slowly pushes offshore. As high
pressure builds in from the north, CAD conditions are expected to
develop early Monday across the NW Piedmont resulting in clouds to
stick around for much of the day. Northerly flow will result in
cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds south
by Wednesday.

Temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 70s NW to low 80s SE.
Early next week will be below normal with temps ranging from upper
60s NW to upper 70s SE. Temperatures bounce back to above average
Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM Thursday...

24 hour TAF period: LIFR/IFR cigs to give way to VFR conditions late
morning and this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected tonight
and Friday morning.

Looking ahead: Showers and sub-VFR conditions will return late
Friday into Sunday, with largely VFR conditions returning sometime
Monday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Danco
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Badgett