267
FXUS64 KTSA 081732
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1232 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Extremely unstable air-mass already in place across much of
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas late this morning. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible across far
northeast Oklahoma along convergent boundary through early
afternoon.

As strong diurnal heating continues thunderstorms will rapidly
develop across far southeast Oklahoma, extending into portions of
northwest Arkansas near or just before 00Z. Instability/shear
profiles suggest baseball to softball size hail will be likely
with a few supercells that develop through early evening. Also,
given the extreme instability, at least some tornado threat will
persist with any deviant cell motions/interactions. Severe
probabilities were increased in aforementioned area with zone
update.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

The cold front will stall across central TX on Thursday with the
elevated frontal zone remaining near far SE OK where a low chance
of thunderstorms will exist. Otherwise, dry, cooler, and quiet
weather conditions will overspread the region especially Friday
and Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances steadily increase and spread eastward for
early next week. At this time the pattern does not favor organized
severe weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024
Scattered to broken stratocumulus deck this afternoon across E
OK/NW AR. As mentioned in previous discussion, scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
across this area. Storms will primarily impact the northwest
Arkansas TAF sites starting late afternoon through early evening.
LIFR visibilities, strong and gusty winds, including hail will
be likely in the stronger storms. Behind front, lower clouds will
begin to clear from northwest to southeast tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  80  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  84  57  78 /  70  10  10   0
MLC   60  81  57  77 /  10  20  10   0
BVO   49  78  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   54  80  50  75 /  50  10  10   0
BYV   54  77  50  72 /  70   0  10   0
MKO   55  78  53  75 /  10  10  10   0
MIO   50  76  50  73 /  10   0   0   0
F10   55  78  53  75 /  10  10  10   0
HHW   63  82  58  77 /  70  40  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...12