Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 270723
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
323 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure crosses the local area this morning then moves away
to the northeast this afternoon. Dry weather is on tap for
Saturday and Sunday, although a cold front passing Saturday
night may cause a few showers. Warmer weather arrives next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 320 AM EDT Friday...

Main area of SHRAS/ISOLD tstms moving to the N of the FAin the
next couple of hours. A trailing area of mainly SHRAS will be
pushing ENE through central/ern portions of the FA through this
(early/mid) morning as lo pres tracks to the NE. Will be
tapering PoPs down 50-70% early this morning to 20-40% by mid-
late morning. A trough will linger over the FA late this morning
through this afternoon. Expecting VRB clouds-mostly cloudy wx
w/ additional SHRAS/possible ISOLD tstms redeveloping (w/ enough
heating) this afternoon/early this eve. Highs today from around
70F N and NE to the m-u70s across srn/SE VA and NE NC (though
m60s at the beaches).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Friday...

After VRB clouds/possible eve SHRAS/ISOLD tstms...esp ern
portions of the FA...improved conditions tonight and
Sat...although do expect a cold front to approach from the NW
late Sat afternoon. Clearing overnight tonight...then partly to
mostly sunny Sat. Lows tonight from the u40s NW to the m50s SE.
Highs Saturday mainly in the m-u70s...except u60s-l70s at the
beaches.

A potent upper low meanders across the eastern Great Lakes
Sat night and will force the weak cold front through the local
area. Model consensus continues to showers a period of clouds
and possible SHRAS accompanying the cold frontal passage Sat
night. Have continued w/ 20-30% PoPs for all but the far SW FA.
Lows Sat night from the l40s NW to the l50s SE.

Sfc hi pres arrives for Sun in the wake of the cold front.
Cooler Sun w/ a bit of a gusty NW wind (esp midday into the
afternoon) and sunny to partly cloudy wx. Highs in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper low centered over New England slowly moves offshore Mon/Mon
night. This will allow an upper level ridge to build over the
eastern third of the country starting on Tuesday. Once the upper
ridge arrives, it will be slow to break down. This will set the
stage for our warmest stretch of the year so far. No rain/t-storm
chances through the extended period. Long range guidance
indicates that rain chances return next weekend as the ridge
slowly breaks down.

Highs around 70 Monday warming to ~80 on Tuesday (with 70s on the
Ern Shore). Expect mid 80s in central VA/low 80s over the Ern
Shore on Wed/Thu. Cool with lows in the 40s on Mon/Tue. Milder
with lows between 55-62 on Wed/Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Friday...

Area of SHRAS/ISOLD tstms moving by RIC...may clip SBY in the
next couple of hours. Will have MVFR-VFR CIGS and VRB VSBYS through
about 12-15Z/27 w/ SHRAS/ISOLD tstms. BKN (mainly VFR) CIGS
continuing through this afternoon-eve w/ possible SCT
SHRAS/ISOLD tstms redeveloping. Mainly VFR conditions expected
Sat-Tue (though gusty NW winds to 20 kt expected Sun).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 355 PM EDT Thursday...

SCA Headlines remain in effect into this evening for southern
coastal waters and decided to extend them through Fri aftn
farther north. This is marginal and due primarily to long period
ESE swell, but general trend is for some increase in easterly
flow later tonight and on Fri so think its going to be difficult
for the seas to fall below 5 ft.

Otherwise, E to SE winds avg 5-10 kt and will increase to 10-15
kt most areas later this evening/overnight. As the low pressure
system moves NE and across the VA coastal plain Fri morning and
eventually to the Delmarva fri aftn, winds will shift to the
SSW. This area of low pressure is not very strong, so winds
during this period are only expected to avg 10-15 kt and at this
point have not raised any additional SCA headlines other than
those over the Ocean. Relatively light winds Sat, then as a
cold front crosses the waters Sat night, expect that we will
need some SCA headlines over the Bay and possibly the
rivers/sound as there will be some cold air advection moving
across the area into Sun morning. Winds stay somewhat elevated
and another secondary surge is likely Sun night (though Sun-Sun
night will probably stay slightly below SCA thresholds). Genly lighter
winds Mon-Tue.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/JDM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...LKB/TMG



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