165
FXUS61 KBGM 041649
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1249 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain showers will be across the area this weekend, as a slow
moving front pushes through finally late Sunday. High pressure
looks to be short lived Monday and Tuesday, before another
frontal boundary and areas of low pressure move through the rest
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Updated pops and sky cover a bit with the mid morning and
noontime updates, forecast discussion below on track.

630 am update...

Increased pops in the southern tier and Bradford county where
rain has moved into the area for now. Cameras show the road is
wet. Light rain/sprinkles coming out of a 10k deck. Increased
cloud cover since it is cloudy everywhere. There could be some
breaks still midday after the rain retreats back south for a few
hours.

330 am update...

A weak frontal boundary is producing some sprinkles early this
morning from Syracuse to Elmira and Troy PA. Rain is having a
hard time making it through the dry low levels. Rain and better
moisture over southwest and central PA will slowly creep
northeast into NEPA and the southern tier of CNY late this
afternoon and tonight for the rest of the area. Clouds are
already here and will remain through Sunday. Most of the rain
will fall late tonight and Sunday before moving east Sunday
night with a cold front. Rainfall totals will be mostly under an
inch. With clouds and cooler temperatures instability will be
tough to get today and tonight. Sunday afternoon there could be
a little instability but only a few models show this. Kept
thunderstorms out of the forecast for this period.

With little rain today high temperatures range from the mid 60s
along the I90 corridor to around 60 in the southern tier and
NEPA. Tonight low temperatures will be from the mid 40s to
around 50. Sunday high temperatures will range from the low 60s
in the Finger Lakes and central southern tier where the least
rain will fall to the mid 50s in the western Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
342 AM Update...
Showers associated with an upper level disturbance will be exiting
the area Sunday night, with the best shower chances lingering back
across the Catskills and Poconos. However, a weakening cold front
will remain to our west, and this will keep a small chance of rain
showers in the picture through the night, although upper level
support will be lacking.

The front itself will weaken into a surface trough and drag itself
across the area on Monday and more or less dissipate as it reaches
the coast. A few pop-up showers will be possible across NE PA as the
trough slowly drifts through the area Monday afternoon. Temperatures
will recover significantly from Sunday, with highs expected in the
upper-60s to lower-70s across the area.

High pressure will build in Monday night, with ideal conditions for
radiational cooling dropping temps into the lower to middle 40s
across the area, with 50s hanging on in the Wyoming Valley.

Weak upper level ridging will make for fair weather on Tuesday, with
highs climbing a few more degrees, into the middle to upper-70s.
Some moisture riding well ahead of the next system will try to sneak
in from the south, but shower chances look to stay out of the area
until Tuesday night when a developing warm front drifts north across
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
342 AM Update...

Low pressure over eastern Ontario will push a cold front through the
area on Wednesday. The warm sector with this system looks rather
narrow, with not much time between the overnight warm frontal
passage and the cold fropa. As a result, instability will be weak,
though a few thunderstorms will still be possible. The back half of
Wednesday may end up fairly dry as precip may push east of the area
early in the afternoon.

The remainder of the period looks unsettled, as a positively tilted
trough hangs back across Quebec and into the Great Lakes, keeping SW
flow aloft in place across the Northeastern CONUS. A series of upper
level disturbances, and an active jet stream to our north will keep
periods of rain in the forecast, though the details are rather
unclear. Leaned heavily on the NBM from Thursday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Gradual lowering of ceilings to MVFR this evening with showers
developing. Then IFR expected for most of the overnight through
the end of the TAF period at all TAF sites. Southerly winds
fairly consistent around 10 knots through the TAF period.
However, occasional gusts of 15-20 knots can not be ruled out.
Marginal LLWS can not be ruled out from 06-15Z Sunday but data
shows this as a lower chance of occurring at this time.

Outlook...

Sunday afternoon through Sunday night... Showers ending with
ceilings lifting some in the afternoon then lowering again
Sunday night.

Monday...Lingering Ceiling restrictions in the morning, then
becoming VFR.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Periods of showers with some
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...MWG