105
FXUS63 KDVN 140817
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
317 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for locations along and south
  of Interstate 80 this morning

- Periodic chances of showers and storms will be in the picture
  for late Tuesday through Saturday, with the highest chances
  coming Wednesday afternoon and evening (40-70%)

- Flooding is occurring or expected to occur on some area
  rivers; please see the hydrology section below for more
  details

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The work week starts off with dense fog being seen on local webcams
and airport observations for locations along and south of Interstate
80 where a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 9 AM this
morning. An area of high pressure remains overhead, with light winds
and clear skies leading to ideal radiational cooling conditions,
coupled with lingering wet ground from Thursday and Friday`s
widespread severe storms. Eventually, the boundary layer should mix
after sunrise this morning to help dissipate the dense fog.

After AM fog dissipates, pleasant conditions are expected today,
with mostly sunny skies and slightly warmer temperatures compared to
yesterday, with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Surface high
pressure will remain with us tonight under continued zonal flow
aloft. Lows tonight should dip to the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Periodic chances of showers and storms will be with us for late
Tuesday through Saturday, particularly for mid-week (chances as high
as 40-70% for Wednesday PM). Overall, ensemble guidance suggests
zonal flow will be the norm, depicted well in the 14.00z LREF 500 mb
height cluster analysis. A few mid-level impulses embedded within
the zonal flow will support more active conditions starting late
Tuesday. The bulk of our attention for this week remains on
Wednesday, which looks to be our next chances for strong to severe
storms. A few key features we will keep an eye on is the potential
for an MCV to approach the area by Wednesday afternoon, which can be
seen in the 14.00z RRFS. Additionally, a surface cold front is
progged to quickly follow behind the MCV, which could also provide
forcing for thunderstorms. Instability should be adequate for storms
as MLCAPE values a progged around 1000-2000 J/kg, along with
strengthening kinematics but generally meager deep-layer shear
(around 20 to 30 knots). With this said, along with a continued
signal in the various ML output for severe convection on Wednesday,
SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for most of our
CWA. How things evolve Wednesday will greatly depend on how
convection develops for locations upstream over the Plains. Stay
tuned to the forecast over the next few days!

The active period appears likely to continue into the end of the
week as strong upper-level ridging develops over the southeastern
CONUS region, which could act to stall the aforementioned cold
front/baroclinic zone over the Corn Belt region. Temperatures will
remain slightly warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday before the cold
front arrives, with highs in the middle to upper 80s each day,
gradually cooling off after Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Light winds and mostly clear skies overnight under an area of
high pressure should help support widespread fog development
through sunrise Monday morning. Confidence in MVFR to IFR fog
continues to increase, so decided to include them for all local
TAFs. The question will be just how low will the visibilities
fall overnight and how quickly will they fall. As of TAF
issuance, there are already some locations seeing MVFR/IFR, so
things may be deteriorating quicker than expected. LIFR
conditions also appear possible, most likely for MLI and BRL, so
have used TEMPO groups for now, but it`s possible these
conditions could become prevailing. Fog/low stratus that
develops should diminish after sunrise Monday, leading to VFR
conditions through Monday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

What is new with this issuance? The flood warning for the
English River at Kalona was canceled with the river falling
below flood stage. The flood watch for the Wapsipinicon River at
Anamosa was canceled as the river is forecast to remain below
flood stage. The flood watches for the Mississippi River at
Gladstone and Burlington have been upgraded to warnings. The
flood warnings for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the Iowa at
Marengo remain in effect. There is lower confidence that the
Skunk River at Sigourney will make it to flood stage with the
river level remaining steady since yesterday morning. The flood
watch remains in effect for the Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt.

Dry conditions are forecast across the area through Tuesday
morning. In bank rises will continue on area rivers before
falling in the latter part of the week.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ063>065-
     067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ015-016-
     024>026-034-035.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ009-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz
HYDROLOGY...Cousins