Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 270724
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
324 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

A cold front will bring a chance of showers today then a clipper
will track just south of Lower Michigan tonight bringing rain and
even a mix with snow. Fair and cool weather will follow for
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Showers along a cold front will advance east across Lower Michigan
today with a clipper to follow for tonight. The surface low tracks
just south of Lower Michigan, putting us in the area of mid level
frontogenetic forcing. We still expect a stripe of one to two
tenths liquid QPF across the southern half of the forecast area
tonight.

Model soundings show profiles are cold enough for some snow to
mix in across the north this evening then spreading south
overnight. Precipitation should be gone off to the east by
Saturday morning. Cold surface high builds in with temperatures
about 10 to 15 degrees below normal Saturday and Saturday night
with moderating temperatures as the sfc high begins to move east
on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

The largest warm up of the year...so far...will occur next week.
High pressure over the southeast US and developing low pressure over
the upper Midwest will result in increased southwest flow which will
draw warmer air northward. Monday will be the coolest day with highs
in the mid 60s. The rest of the period will see highs in the 70s.

The best chance of rain will be Tuesday night through Thursday
morning. The low over northern Minnesota will push a cold front into
the Lower Peninsula where models show it stalling. Meanwhile, low
pressure over the southern Plains will ride northeast along the
front and be a catalyst for showers and perhaps storms midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1232 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

A cold front will pass through the area prior to sunrise. A brief
shower is possible but not much more than that. VFR cigs vsbys
expected until later in the period. Another low will move across
Lower Michigan late Friday bringing MVFR cigs and some light rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Winds and waves will gradually decrease today but increase again
on Saturday as northerly flow strengthens behind a cold front.
A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Steady or slowly falling stages continued this morning on area
rivers and streams.  River advisories for low area flooding remain
in effect for Evart...Ionia...Eagle...and Maple Rapids. These will
continue to fall slowly over the next few days.

Precipitation is expected tonight into Friday...but forecast amounts
are low and will not impact river stages.  Multiple precipitation
events are expected during the middle and latter portions of next
week...which may cause a new round of rises on area rivers.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LMZ848-849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
SHORT TERM...Ostuno
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...MWS
MARINE...Ostuno



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