Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 240854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
454 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

A winter system will move through the region today into tonight
bringing a mix of precipitation to the area. High pressure and
dry conditions will be present for Sunday.


Main story of the near term is a winter system that will move
through the region today into tonight. With this forecast
package the main changes were to decrease snowfall amounts and
have a slight northward shift in the heaviest axis of snow. The
reasons for this are outlined below.

The current conditions with this system upstream show a mix of
precipitation with snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain,
thunderstorms, etc all being reported. Expect a mix of
precipitation to continue as this system moves towards the area.
Looking at model soundings ice does not always look like it
will be introduced into the cloud and therefore do not expect
precipitation to stay in the form of snow for the duration of
the event. In addition easterly flow will allow for some dry
air. Temperatures will be in the 30s for the precipitation and
there will be warm ground temperatures. In addition
precipitation will generally fall during the day and with the
time of year this will also act as a hindrance to
accumulations. Models have been very inconsistent with
precipitation type.

There are a few things that this system does have going for it.
Higher precipitation rates will be present and therefore if
snow does occur then the high rate could overcome the warmer
ground temperatures. There is some snow upstream and model
soundings are indicating at least a few hour potential of some
accumulating snow.

With all that in mind trended the forecast towards less snowfall
totals, however kept several inches in the forecast as the
potential for higher values cannot be ruled out if snowfall can
be realized for a long enough period of time. Due to this
uncertainty, kept winter headlines in place as is.

Meanwhile, across northern and northeastern portions of the
forecast area today expect tranquil weather conditions with
highs in the 40s.

Precipitation will gradually decrease and move out of the area
tonight. Winds will gust at times today and tonight.


High pressure and dry conditions will be present for Sunday.
Went close to the superblend for temperatures. Some wind gusts
generally around 20 to 30 mph will be possible.


High pressure centered in eastern Canada will continue to extend
into the Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday. A developing warm
front will lift out of mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Great
Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. This will cause showers to spread
across the region, marking the beginning of a wet period. Moist
southerly flow will occur in advance of a slow-moving cold front
that will cross the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Periodic showers are forecast until the front passes. But this front
will not get much beyond the forecast area before stalling. This is
in response to a wave of low pressure that will travel up the
boundary Thursday. Precipitation will spread back across at least
the eastern part of the forecast area in response to this wave. Once
the low passes, the front will move far enough away to allow for
some drying late in the week.

Temperatures will start out the week below normal but on a warming
trend. Highs will be near normal mid week although low will be above
normal. Temperatures will drop back Thursday night and Friday.


Complex winter system will move into the TAF sites today. There
is still some question on exact precipitation type, however a
mix of precipitation is expected. Precipitation is expected to
stay out of the KCMH and KLCK TAF sites. Winds will be gusty at
times during the day and into the evening hours. Visibilities
and cigs will be reduced as precipitation moves into the region.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Monday and Tuesday.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ070-078-
     Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ077.
KY...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for INZ058-059.
     Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for INZ066-073>075-



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