Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 200424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1124 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A closed upper level low will be located along the UT/CO border area
by early Friday morning. Expect a rapid increase in moisture across
the region tonight ahead of this system, with PWATS increasing to
around 0.70" by Friday morning across much of western Nebraska. This
is well above average for this time of year, with the April 20th
daily record at North Platte being 0.86." Models indicate that
decent mid level FGEN will develop eastward cross the area during
the day Friday, along with deep isentropic upglide and mixing ratios
increasing to around 4g/kg. Rain should quickly develop across far
western NE by mid morning, spreading eastward through the day.
Farther east, generally east of hwy 183 from Bassett to Broken Bow,
low level dry air will be in place, and have a much lower chance for
rain in these areas. The NAM may be over doing it on the dynamic
cooling, and changes rain to snow across the western Sandhills and
eastern Panhandle during the day. This is likely due to the heavier
precipitation rates within that model, and thus cools the column and
changes rain over to snow. This doesn`t really have any support,
even from the other hi-res models, and not confident to go all snow
but will have a mix of rain and snow. Otherwise a chilly day,
especially western areas with moist upslope easterly flow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Models in good agreement with system continuing to track into the
Texas Panhandle then east across Oklahoma. This will place western
Nebraska on the northern side and the cooler air with little
convective chances. Temperatures remain the significant factor in
precipitation type. Dynamic cooling with mid level forcing could
change rain over to or just mix with snow Friday night. All guidance
lows hovering around 34. Slow progression with quasi cutoff low will
keep precipitation over western Nebraska through Saturday evening.
Higher qpf over the southwest zones. Highs Saturday in the 50s and
the 60s on Sunday as the upper low moves away. Next system moves
through Monday night into Tuesday. Possibility over the eastern
Nebraska Panhandle of thunderstorms. Fast moving northern stream
system with warm air. Highs in the 60s Monday and the 50s on
Tuesday. System closes off and slows Tuesday with some deformation
zone showers lingering through Wednesday morning over north central
zones. Normal temperatures into the end of the week as a Pacific
ridge builds east.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Latest satellite imagery and surface obs shows broken high clouds
overhead and southeast winds with occasional gusts up to 20-25
mph in western NEB. Areas will start to see impacts from the next
weather system early tomorrow morning. Mid-level clouds are
expected to develop early morning and spread eastward tomorrow.
Ceilings then anticipated to lower to MVFR late morning-early
afternoon in the eastern Panhandle and far western NEB. Elsewhere,
ceilings lowering over time to low-end VFR (less than 7 kft)
during the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread
gradually across the remainder of southwest NEB and the western
Sandhills by late afternoon. Winds will remain southeasterly and
breezy with modest gusts during the day. Meanwhile, rain is
expected to develop in the eastern Panhandle and far western NEB
mid-late morning then spread east across the remainder of
southwest NEB into the central Sandhills during the afternoon.




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