Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 222338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
738 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018

VFR will prevail through the period with mostly clear skies. Winds
will decrease this evening to below 10 kts from the NW-NNW. Winds
become NNE Friday after sunrise, increasing to near 10 kts after


No changes to the forecast for the evening update. Just some minor
adjustments to account for the latest observations. Winds have
diminished below 10 mph for most of South FL, with the exception
of the west coast, where winds are still NW-NNW 10-15 gusting to
20 mph. These winds should decrease slightly during the next
couple of hours. The weather tonight across South Florida will be
clear, dry and cool.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018/

TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: Large surface high across the Central
U.S. expands east and south into the upcoming weekend, eventually
centered just to our east by Sunday. Dry conditions will prevail
through the weekend, with temperatures remaining cool through

Tonight should be a few degrees colder than this morning with
temperatures ranging from the low 40s across Glades and Hendry
counties to low to mid 50s across coastal Broward and Miami-
Dade. Highs Friday will be in the mid 70s most areas except upper
70s over much of Collier County.

As the high slides into the Atlantic, winds will veer more easterly
and quickly moderate the cool airmass in place. Expect more
seasonable highs in the upper 70s and low 80s for the weekend, with
lows climbing back into the 50s and mid 60s.

EARLY NEXT WEEK: By Monday, an interesting pattern sets up across
the CONUS with a strong deep, nearly vertically stacked low over the
western Atlantic. Strong high pressure ridge over Southern Canada
extends southward and filters cool air over the eastern seaboard
down to the Southeast U.S. To the west of that, another strong low
pressure trough digging southward across the western U.S. will be
slowly moving eastward out of the Rockies and moving into the
Central U.S. during the early to middle portion of next week.

The high pressure ridge over Florida this weekend may be strong
enough to stick around early next week until the high pressure
ridge that originated over southeastern Canada merges with the
high to the South. This would create a long north-south high
pressure ridge extending from eastern Canada to the eastern Gulf
by Tuesday. At the same time, the GFS and ECMWF are showing a
backdoor cold front with some moisture extending from the Atlantic
low and coming through South Florida. The aforementioned models
then show the cool air from Canada filtering southward, but
moderating significantly as it does so, due in part to the fact
that it is late March. This would give us in South Florida a
slight chance of showers late Monday into early Tuesday, followed
by pleasant temperatures and humidity levels Tuesday night into
Wednesday created by a ridge in the wake of the back door cold
front. The ridge may stay over us Thursday. Although high
temperatures may average around 80 in South Florida Tuesday and
Wednesday, there is potential for temperatures to be closer to the
upper 80s next Thursday, but a lot can still change 7 days out.

Overall, do not expect much rainfall over the next 7 days, so the
developing drought across portions of South FL is unlikely to
improve at all during the next week.

The small craft advisory for the Atlantic waters will be allowed
to expire at 6pm this evening. Northerly winds around 15 kts will
continue in the Atlantic waters into Friday morning. Seas of 4-6
ft will linger offshore in the Gulf through tonight before
diminishing Friday. High pressure will move into the area for the
weekend, veering winds to the north-northeast on Friday and east-
northeast Saturday, with speeds decreasing to 10-15kts. Winds
become more light and variable on Sunday as the ridge axis settles

Deteriorating boating conditions for the Atlantic waters is becoming
more likely for early next week due to a potential strong east-northeast
wind surge with winds 20-25 kts across our waters Monday night
and Tuesday. Seas may remain elevated into mid-week for waters off
the Palm Beach coast due to the possibility of a long period
northeast swell being generated from a strong storm well offshore
the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Coasts.

Dry conditions are expected to persist through Friday with
afternoon RH values dropping into the 20-30 percent range over
most of South Florida. However, lighter winds on Friday will
preclude the need for any headlines. Winds becoming northeast and
east this weekend should hold RH values above 35 percent, though a
few locations across the western interior may still briefly reach
30-35 percent.

West Palm Beach  49  74  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  53  75  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            53  76  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           48  75  55  79 /   0   0   0   0



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