Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 241114

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
714 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

High pressure builds down from southeastern Canada through
Monday night, then remains anchored along the Eastern Seaboard
of the United States into the middle of next week. This high
then slowly slides offshore, as a slow moving cold front
approaches from the west through Thursday night. The cold front
then crosses the area on Friday.


Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

Northern stream shortwave ridging crosses the area today, so it
should be dry due to subsidence under the ridge. However, cannot
completely rule out a stray sprinkle/flurry over mainly eastern
zones this morning before the ridge axis moves over the area.

As the ridge axis passes to the east this afternoon, will see
some increase in cloud cover ahead of the next spoke of
vorticity rotating around the closed low over S Quebec.

Highs today should be a few degrees above normal, mainly in the
mid to upper 40s.


The main axis of the eastern trough pushes south into the region
by late tonight, then to the south of the area Sunday morning,
followed by a secondary trough axis Sunday afternoon.

Associated forcing warrants pops for isolated-scattered snow
showers late tonight, scattered snow showers Sunday morning,
then isolated-scattered rain and snow showers Sunday afternoon.
Generally any accumulation should be very light, only a few
tenths of an inch. However cannot completely rule out an
isolated convective burst of snow producing localized amounts of
around 1 inch. Also, given the steep low level lapse rates,
cannot rule out graupel or strong gusty winds from any stronger
shower as well.

Lows tonight should be from a few to around 5 degrees below
normal. Highs on Sunday should run around 10 degrees below
normal. Gusty NE winds will cause wind chills around 30 Sunday
afternoon as well.


Deep layered ridging builds in Sunday night-Tuesday. Other than
maybe some lingering snow showers over far eastern zones early
Sunday evening, it should be dry Sunday night-Tuesday. Other
than decreasing clouds Sunday night, it should be mainly clear
through Tuesday as well. Temperatures will run around 10 degrees
below normal Sunday night-Monday night and around 5 degrees
below normal on Tuesday.

The ridge axis slowly slides offshore Tuesday night and
Wednesday as a northern stream trough builds into SE Canada,
flattening the top of the ridge. At a minimum will see an
increase in cloud cover starting Tuesday night. There is some
question in how far east precipitation pushes on Wednesday. For
now have limited pops to slight chance over the western 1/5 of
the CWA. Could possibly some snow mixed with any rain that does
occur Wednesday morning.

Ridging then builds in from the S, with a return of the Bahamas
ridge featured early in winter. This will help keep at bay a
full latitude that slowly slides from the Plains Wednesday night
to the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, since the area will be on
the NW periphery of this ridge, it will be subject to the
influence of shortwaves running ahead of the main trough. These
shortwaves could bring isolated-scattered showers to the region
from Wednesday night-Friday, with the best chance Thursday night
and Friday.

Temperatures Tuesday night-Friday should run near to slightly
above normal.


High pres builds into the region today. A cold front will pass
from the n tngt.

VFR through at least 4z with sct-bkn050 developing this aftn.
Sct shsn/shra could produce mvfr or lower at times late tngt and

NW flow today, veering to the ne tngt. Gusts may only be ocnl
thru 15z. The ne flow will continue thru Sun with speeds
increasing particularly aft 12z.

.Sunday...Chance of mvfr or lower in sct shra/shsn. NE winds
G15-20KT. Gusts to 30 kt possible.
.Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NE winds G15-20KT, mainly at the
coastal terminals.
.Tuesday-Wednesday...Mainly VFR.


Made minor changes this update to reflect the latest trends in
observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track.

NW winds will remain below 25 kt today. The flow becomes NE
behind a cold front tonight, with winds picking up into Sun.
The brisk NE winds will then continue into Mon. The strongest
flow will be across the eastern waters and ocean. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) has therefore been issued for Sunday and Sunday
Night for these areas. The SCA may need to be extended through
Mon. The prolonged NE flow will keep seas at or above 5ft on
the ocean through at least Wed. It is possible that seas stay
at SCA levels for the rest of the week.


Rapid snow melt will continue into the weekend as high temps
climb into the 40s. No hydrologic problems are anticipated
through Thursday.


NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the
air for an extended period of time.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for


NEAR TERM...Maloit
LONG TERM...Maloit
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