Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FGUS72 KCAE 152026

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
426 PM EDT Thu Mar 15 2018

...Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

...Expect below normal to near normal potential of river flooding
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area...

This Spring Flood Potential Outlook is for rivers and tributaries
of the Central Savannah River Basin...East-Central Georgia and
Central South Carolina including the following:

Savannah River Basin Downstream of R. B. Russell Reservoir and
upstream from Burtons Ferry...

The Edisto River basin upstream of the Bamberg and Orangeburg
County line in South Carolina...

The Santee River Basin upstream of the Clarendon and Berkeley
County line and downstream on the Saluda and Broad Rivers at the
Greenwood/Saluda...Laurens/Newberry...Union/Fairfield and the
Chester/Fairfield County lines in South Carolina...

The Wateree River System downstream of Great Falls South

The Great Pee Dee River Basin in Chesterfield County in South

           ...Summary of Recent Weather Events...

Over the last 14 days ending March 15 2018...the hydrologic area
received rainfall amounts that ranged from 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall. The heaviest rain fell across the northern Midlands.
This includes northern Fairfield, northern Lancaster and northwest
Chesterfield counties. The least amount of rain across the
southern Midlands and CSRA. This includes Burke County Georgia
northeast across Barnwell, Bamberg and Orangeburg counties. This
ranges from 110 to 125 percent of normal across the northern
Midlands to around 50 percent of normal across the southern

           ...Soul Moisture-Drought Conditions...

Here is a breakdown of the current conditions across the Midlands
and CSRA.

Rainfall over the past 2 weeks has been at or below normal across
the Midlands and CSRA. This has resulted in an increase of
coverage of the area of D0, abnormally dry. This extends across
nearly all of the central and eastern Midlands. The area of D1,
moderate drought, has increased across the Central Savannah River
Area and along the coast of South Carolina. Rainfall amounts from
one half inch up to one inch are forecasted over the next 7 days.

Go to www.drought.gov for more details.

           ...River and Stream Flow...

Looking at the 14 day stream flow average compared to historical
streamflows for March 15 2018 show most of the stream basins
across the Midlands and CSRA have much below to below normal flow
conditions. The stream basins that are near normal flows include
the Saluda River Basin and the Santee River Basin. The stream
basins that have flows that are much below to below normal flows
include the Savannah River Basin, the Edisto River Basin, the
Lynches River basin, the Wateree River Basin, the Pee Dee River
Basin and the Catawba River Basin. Note, many stream flows across
the area are impacted by reservoir project operations.

Broad River Basin: Near Normal flows
Catawba/Wateree River Basin: Below Normal/Near Normal flows
Saluda River Basin: Near Normal flows
Santee River Basin: Near Normal flows
Edisto River Basin: Much Below Normal flows
Savannah River Basin: Much Below Normal flows

           ...Reservoir Levels...

Reservoir pool elevations rose over the past 2 weeks across the
Midlands and CSRA. Areas along the Savannah River Basin are
below normal for their early Spring target pool/guide curves.
The Saluda...Santee and Wateree Basins remain near or just above
their Winter target pool/guide curves. Note, reservoir pool
elevations are dependent on project operations.

Lake Thurmond (FP 330.0 Feet)...
Mar 01 2018    325.88 Feet
Mar 15 2018    326.65 feet
Difference Plus  0.77 Feet

Lake Greenwood (FP 440.0 Feet)...
Mar 01 2018    436.96 Feet
Mar 15 2018    437.11 Feet
Difference Plus  0.15 Feet

Lake Murray (FP 360.0 Feet)...
Mar 01 2018    357.69 Feet
Mar 15 2018    358.12 Feet
Difference Plus  0.43 Feet

Lake Marion (FP 76.8 Feet)...
Mar 01 2018    74.95 Feet
Mar 15 2018    75.16 Feet
Difference Plus 0.21 Feet

Lake Wateree (FP 100.00 Feet)...
Mar 01 2018     97.09 Feet
Mar 15 2018     97.41 Feet
Difference Plus  0.32 Feet

Data for this segment was gathered from the United States
Geological Survey...the United States Army Corps of
Engineers...Duke Energy...South Carolina Electric and
Gas...Greenwood County and Santee Cooper.

      ...Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks...

Near Term...High pressure will continue to build into the region
from the west. A weak back door cold front will approach the NC
and SC border Friday evening and stall across the Carolinas
through the weekend. This will provide a small chance of a few
light showers or sprinkles through the weekend. Rainfall totals
are expected to around or less than one tenth of an inch.

Please see the Gridded Forecasts for the chance of rain over the
next 7 days at weather.gov/cae.

The 8 to 14 Day Outlook for the period March 23 through March 29
calls for a equal chances of above, below or normal temperatures
and precipitation.

The 30-Day Outlook for April 2018 indicates a 40 percent chance
of above normal temperatures along with equal chances of above,
below or normal precipitation for the month.

The 3-Month Outlook for April, May and June calls for a 40 to 50
percent chance of above normal temperatures along with equal
chances of below, above and normal precipitation.

Go to the Climate Prediction Center webpage at
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov for more details and the latest outlooks.


The Spring Flood Outlook calls now calls for near normal
potential of river flooding across Central South Carolina and
East-Central Georgia. This is due to the increase rainfall over
the past 2 to 3 weeks.

Historically...the River Flood Season begins in early to mid
January with the number of river flood events increasing through
late Winter into early Spring. The peak occurs in early to mid
March then begins to end in late April for the region.

The medium to long range precipitation guidance indicates little
confidence in the region receiving above normal precipitation
through the Spring season. Stream flows, on average, have
continued to be below normal across much of the region through
the Winter. However, over the past couple of weeks most reservoir
pool heights have risen. The area Reservoirs along the Savannah
River are running below target pool or guide curves. The Santee
and Catawba River Reservoirs are running near or just above normal
for their target pool/guide curves for the middle of March. This
combined with the gradual increase in pool heights for Summer
recreation indicates the the risk of river flooding downstream
from these projects is below normal.

The next schedule Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for
Thursday March 29 2018.

                ...Questions and Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this outlook please

The National Weather Service
2909 Aviation Way
West Columbia SC 29170
Phone: 803-822-8135
Internet Address: caewx@noaa.gov
Senior Service Hydrologist:


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