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AGPN40 KWNM 242114

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
214 PM PDT Thu May 24 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The 18Z surface analysis shows a dying stationary front draped
across the central waters. An ASCAT pass at 18Z indicates winds
north of the front from 15 to 20 kt.

12Z model solutions remain in fairly good agreement throughout,
with some minor differences. The 10m GFS and the 12Z NAMnest are
in excellent agreement through 00Z Sunday, and the initial
conditions match quite well with the 18Z ASCAT and ship
observations. For that reason, will use a blend of these through
00Z Sunday. Model agreement continues between the GFS and ECMWF
beyond this, with the ECMWF agreeing well with the location,
timing and intensity of the winds; will use a 50/50 blend of
these through 00Z Monday. Gale force winds should be expected
with the interaction of a strengthening coastal trough and a high
pressure ridge to the W of the waters. The 10m GFS does an
excellent job of introducing the gale force winds by this time,
so will use the 10m GFS through 12Z Tuesday to keep the gales in
the waters. Will make one final model switch 12Z Tuesday through
the end of the forecast to the ECMWF which, while slow to build,
keeps the expected higher winds speeds in the area of the
strongest interactions between the high and low pressure trough.

.SEAS...Will continue the use of a 50/50 blend of the WW3 and the
ECMWF WAM. Both models appear to have initiated well. They
remain in good agreement with some minor differences. The blend
resolves these quite well.



.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Monday night.
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.


.Forecaster Sommerville. Ocean Prediction Center. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.