Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 180813

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
413 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Valid 12Z Sun Mar 18 2018 - 12Z Tue Mar 20 2018

...There is a slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Central Appalachians/Southern Mid-Atlantic Monday and

...There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms for portions of
the Southern Plains and Gulf states on Sunday...

...Heavy snow possible over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region and Central Rockies...

Showers and thunderstorms will develop across much of the Southern
Plains and Gulf states today as warm Gulf moisture transports
northward over a stalled front. Some of the storms may become
strong to severe - the Storm Prediction Center has identified much
of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley as having a
slight risk for severe thunderstorms today. The area of strong
convection will expand into parts of the Southeast/Southern
Mid-Atlantic by Monday morning as the surface front crosses the
central U.S. and lifts through the Southern
Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic regions and offshore by Tuesday. As a
result, the area of slight and enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms will shift as well - covering much of the
Southern/Central Appalachians and the surrounding area.
Additionally, snow will be possible for parts of the Ohio Valley,
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern portions of the Northeast by
late Monday into Tuesday.

In the meantime, upper-level energy moving around a deep
upper-level trough over Central California will move eastward to
the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains by
Monday. Rain and higher elevations snow will continue over the
Pacific Northwest Coast through Monday morning, as well as, parts
of the Northern Rockies. Snow will expand east out of the
Southwest and the Central/Southern Rockies into the
Northern/Central High Plains by Sunday evening. Snow will be heavy
at times for portions of the Central and Northern Rockies over the
next couple of days. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect
across portions of the Intermountain West and the Four Corners

The West Coast will be transitioning back to a  prolonged wet
period by the middle of week. Portions of California will likely
see long duration of rain that could lead to significant impacts,
including debris flows, mudslides and flooding.


Graphics available at
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