Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 241157
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
657 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2024

A surface ridge is currently centered from Quebec SWD into the Great
Lakes and extends SWD across the remainder of E Conus. At the same
time, an upper trough is situated across the WRN US with zonal flow
currently into AL. This will transition to SW upper flow into AL by
the end of the short term as an associated low digs into the trough
SEWD then swings NEWD toward the mid section of the US. We currently
have clear skies noted on satellite, but this will change as cirrus
clouds increase today into tonight. Light NRLY winds currently will
become ERLY this morning and SERLY this afternoon. The cooler air
will be cut off as the surface ridge weakens and pushes EWD toward
the Atlantic states. With that said, today should be a nice day with
temperatures warming into the mid 60s to lower 70s across C AL.
Winds will become gusty tonight as surface pressure gradients
increase ahead of our next system.

A surface low will deepen on the lee side of the Rockies and sag SE
today with a front extending SWD from it. It is expected to cycle to
the NE from E CO/W KS toward IA tonight into Monday. This will allow
for our overall moisture to increase with increasing clouds tonight
into Monday. Winds should pick up enough by 18z Monday to
necessitate a wind advisory starting in the WRN counties spreading
further EWD to more of the area by 00z. The rain should be knocking
on our door by then as well, but will keep Monday (day) rain free
for now. As for temperatures on Monday, highs will be similar thanks
to the cloud cover. However, also because of the clouds, increasing
dew points, and gusty SE winds, lows tonight should be around 6-14
degrees milder that this morning.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2024

Key Messages:

- A line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move into
Central Alabama Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
which could pose a threat for localized flooding, mainly for areas
west of I-65, where 2-3" of rain is currently forecast.

- Severe weather threats are low at this time and generally limited
to our southwest counties for a few hours early Tuesday morning,
then tapering off across our far southern counties throughout
Tuesday morning.

- Strong non-thunderstorm (gradient) wind gusts of 35-45 mph are
forecast Monday night into Tuesday morning. Wind Advisory in effect.

A strong area of (mainly linear) convection is forecast to move into
Alabama Monday night into early Tuesday morning, ahead of a SSW to
NNW oriented cold front. This MCS is associated with a shortwave
perturbation rotating through a broad trough across the central
CONUS. While an occluded low pressure will be situated near Iowa at
this time, a stout low-level jet (LLJ) is progged across the
Southeast/Gulf Coast with 850 mb winds of 60-70 kts, and 925 mb
winds of 40-50 kts. This will coincide with a 8-10 mb pressure
gradient across Central Alabama, ahead of the MCS. As such, surface
wind gusts of 35-45 mph are forecast Monday night into Tuesday
morning, a continuation of gusty winds from Monday afternoon. A,
expanded Wind Advisory will be issued for this.

The main impact from convection is locally heavy rainfall. Latest
QPF situates 2-3" of rain generally west of I-65. Localized flooding
is possible in low-lying or poor drainage areas, particularly if
some storm-scale bands/higher rainfall rates can orient more
parallel to deep-layer flow. The weakening nature of the MCS Tuesday
morning has led to a decreasing confidence for flooding across the
remainder of Central Alabama. Furthermore, the system is forecast to
remain displaced from favorable surface-based instability to support
a meaningful wind or tornado threat early Tuesday morning. Most
guidance continues to depict the warm sector pinching/tapering off
by the early morning, and it certainly appears this will be a system
dominated by kinematics. It`s not uncommon to see gradient wind
gusts being the dominant hazard in a scenario like this.

The decaying MCS will progress eastward Tuesday morning and should
be exiting our forecast area during the afternoon. A cooler, drier
airmass will move in thereafter along with clearing skies.

A broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to position across
the central CONUS Wednesday morning with southwesterly flow aloft
nearing the East Coast. This trough will eventually exit the eastern
CONUS on Friday as high pressure centers near the Southeast by then.
As such, stable conditions are forecast Wednesday through the end of
the period with developing ridge and noticeable warming trend
in the region Friday through Sunday.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2024

VFR TAFs are expected for the next 24 hours. High cirrus will
move into C AL today ahead of a digging upper trough over the W
US. Surface pressure gradients will increase in advance of the
next surface system with the current light NRLY winds increasing
and becoming ERLY this morning then SERLY this afternoon into
tonight with gusts at times.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air is in the region today with 20 ft winds becoming easterly
to southeasterly at 5-10 mph this afternoon. Minimum RH values in
the 25-40% range are forecast. Moisture recovers tomorrow with
wetting rains forecast Monday night through Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  43  67  55 /   0   0   0  70
Anniston    69  44  68  56 /   0   0   0  60
Birmingham  70  48  68  58 /   0   0   0  80
Tuscaloosa  71  50  71  59 /   0   0   0  90
Calera      70  48  69  59 /   0   0   0  70
Auburn      67  46  68  57 /   0   0   0  30
Montgomery  71  50  72  62 /   0   0   0  40
Troy        72  49  74  61 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for the following
counties: Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-Etowah-Fayette-
Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-St. Clair-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Fayette-Greene-Hale-Lamar-Marengo-Marion-
Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM CDT Tuesday for the
following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-Chilton-
Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Jefferson-Lowndes-
Montgomery-Perry-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....40/Sizemore
AVIATION...08


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