045
FXUS64 KBMX 141144
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
644 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024

The main weather remains to our south as the MCS will slide along
the coast this morning. Meanwhile a low pressure system is sliding
to the west of the area and will help develop showers and storms
throughout the day. Meanwhile, an upper level low/disturbance will
slide across the north today before exiting by Wednesday. Storms
that develop during the afternoon, may be strong to marginally
severe if the lift can be sustained. The best chances for a stronger
storm will be across the northeast with its closer proximity to the
low. Hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. This also
depends on the amount of instability we can actually realize in the
area due to the limiting factors or scattered showers and cloud
cover this morning. Most of the activity will move out of the area
overnight and then redevelop in the afternoon across the northeast
with another upper low swinging through. Highs today will be in the
mid to upper 70s in the northern half of the area and upper 70s to
low 80s in the south. Additional cloud cover is expected overnight
into Wednesday morning, so overnight lows will remain in the 60s.
Clouds should begin to clear out on Wednesday from southwest to
northeast. This will allow temperatures to climb in the 80s for most
locations with some upper 70s in the northeast.

16

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024

A shortwave ridge will be on an easterly transit across the area on
Thursday, behind a trough departing into the western Atlantic.
Central Alabama will be rain-free and warm, with highs in the 80s
to near 90 in some southern locations.

An upper-level disturbance is progged to advance from the Southern
Plains toward the Mid Mississippi Valley Friday morning. This will
coincide with a broad zone of southerly to southwesterly low-level
flow overspreading the Gulf Coast and Deep South. As such,
isentropic ascent will be present leading to increasing clouds and
rain chances from west-to-east. Widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms are forecast by Friday afternoon with locally heavy
rainfall possible along and south of I-20 (latest QPF is 2-4" in
these areas). This scenario is not too dissimilar from our recent
weather event. Flow aloft is west-southwesterly overspreading much
of the Gulf Coast baroclinic zone. It appears the quasi-stationary
front will struggle to advance northward, and this leads to a
tendency for thunderstorms/higher QPF to dwell closer to the I-10
corridor. While we`ll maintain some messaging for locally heavy
rainfall/flooding Friday, there`s no current concerns for severe
weather given the scenario and the differing solutions still
present in medium-range guidance. Regardless, some convection is
forecast to linger Friday night into Saturday morning, gradually
drifting to the east with time. Drier, warmer conditions prevail
at the end of the period with a transition to northwesterly deep-
layer flow.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024

MVFR is now limited to the east as a dry layer was able to
develop behind the area of rain and clear out the low deck. With
that said though we are beginning to see some low decks develop
further west along with some light rain. Thinking is that we will
only see MVFR decks now so removed the IFR. Some light
rain/drizzle will be possible in the northern sites before the
upper low work into the area this afternoon. Most areas will
become VFR again this afternoon, with better rain chances,
especially in the north, during the afternoon. Could be some
thunder around so included that in the prob30 after 21z through 2
to 3z. MVFR and patchy fog may develop in the far east by the end
of the period.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening, with a chance of showers across the northeast
counties on Wednesday. This coincides with elevated moisture
values this afternoon and southwesterly 20 ft winds at 5-10 mph. A
transition to Westerly & northwesterly 20 ft winds is forecast
Wednesday and Thursday, with overall drier conditions Thursday
afternoon. Additional wetting rains are forecast on Friday with
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  61  80  58 /  80  60  30   0
Anniston    76  63  81  59 /  80  60  30   0
Birmingham  76  63  81  61 /  80  50  20   0
Tuscaloosa  78  63  83  61 /  70  40   0   0
Calera      76  63  81  61 /  80  50  10   0
Auburn      77  65  81  62 /  70  50  10   0
Montgomery  81  65  85  62 /  60  40   0   0
Troy        81  65  85  62 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...16