Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 230106
SWODY1
SPC AC 230104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2019

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS INTO FAR WESTERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms will be possible through mid-evening
across parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and South Plains
regions.  Large hail and locally severe wind gusts are the primary
threats.

...West TX...TX/OK Panhandles...Western OK...
A broken line of thunderstorms is propagating eastward across the TX
Panhandle at 01Z. While low-level moisture is relatively limited
(dewpoints in the upper 40s/low 50s F), steep midlevel lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft (as noted on 00Z AMA sounding) are still
supporting MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. 40-50 kt of effective shear
continues to support organized storm structures, with a few embedded
supercell structures ongoing despite the increasingly linear storm
mode. While the severe threat may be past its peak, ongoing activity
will continue to pose some hail and wind risk until around 03-04Z,
with some backbuilding possible immediately to the southwest of the
ongoing line. See MCD 226 for more details regarding the short-term
threat in this area.

Further south, convection has struggled to deepen across the TX
South Plains. While there is still a small window a surface-based
storm or two to pose a hail threat, it appears that the primary
severe threat for the remainder of the evening will be further north
with ongoing convection.

..Dean.. 03/23/2019

$$


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