413
FXUS64 KFWD 100739
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
239 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 105 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
/Today through Saturday Afternoon/

With the cold front fully though North and Central Texas, cooler
and drier air will continue to filter in overnight. The front will
continue to move through South Texas as the base of the more
progressive northern longwave trough to our northeast swings
through the Tennessee Valley and into the Carolinas. With the cut-
off low still stagnant to our west, this will cause ridging to
build across the Southern Plains to end out the week. Overall,
subsident air will keep things on the quieter end of the ledge,
aside from a couple of shortwave impulses providing enough
isentropic ascent for isolated rain chances each afternoon.

The first impulse will round the apex of the ridge this afternoon.
Isolated showers are expected to form to our west across the
Edwards Plateau and move eastward over our Central Texas counties.
Guidance generally has the activity weakening as it moves across
our area, with the more "robust" reflectivity in our far
southwestern counties. Additionally, forecast soundings show a
deep dry layer under where the rain would fall from (~500-600mb).
This would promote evaporation of much of the rain before it gets
to the ground. Have persisted in only having a mention of 20% PoPs
for our southeast counties, with 10% or less PoPs elsewhere in
Central Texas for today as most will likely stay dry. Afternoon
highs will peak in the 70s to low 80s, which are near to below
normal for this time of year.

On Saturday, the aforementioned cut-off low to our west will de-
amplify into a more open wave trough and begin to move eastward.
While the trough will not impact our short-term sensible weather,
a stronger impulse out ahead of the low will move across the
region and break down the ridge. We`ll have better rain and storm
chances across our western counties over the afternoon hours as
stronger ascent will overspread the region. No severe weather is
expected with this activity, but there looks to be enough elevated
instability for a few lightning strikes.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Sunday Onward/

Another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms will
materialize for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend and will
continue into Monday to begin the workweek. This will be due to a
deepening upper low and attendant diffuse surface system which
will make eastward progress through the Southern Plains beginning
early Sunday morning. Height falls ahead of this system will
allow more robust southerly flow and northward moisture advection
to occur prior to the arrival of a weak surface cold front and
broad mid-level dynamic ascent. This should culminate in
scattered and mostly disorganized convection beginning Sunday
morning, with coverage increasing through the daytime. Instability
will likely not recover to values supportive of severe weather,
at least not on an organized level. However, a sufficient
parameter space for perhaps a couple of strong storms with mainly
a hail threat could exist, and this would be more likely across
Central Texas where instability should be greatest. In addition,
moderate to heavy rainfall may cause minor flooding issues,
particularly due to already saturated grounds from above average
rainfall over the past several weeks. Localized 24-hour rain
totals of 1-2" are plausible.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue into the daytime
Monday on a more isolated/scattered basis, likely with one final
chance for convective activity along this system`s weak slow-
moving cold front. This boundary will bring slightly drier air to
the region, scouring rain chances to the southeast in the
process. Despite this front`s passage, temperatures on Monday
afternoon will probably be a few degrees warmer than Sunday`s
highs due to less widespread cloud cover and a bit of insolation
returning late in the day. With upper-level shortwave ridging
following on the heels of the departing trough, dry and warmer
weather will prevail on Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will resume Wednesday and
Thursday next week as yet another strong shortwave deepens over
the Central High Plains. This may bring a more traditional and
favorable setup for severe convection to portions of the area with
active dryline and cold front boundaries to our north and west.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 105 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Mid-to-low level VFR clouds are spreading across the TAF sites
tonight in the wake of our earlier cold front. The clouds will
remain mostly VFR, though have kept a possibility for MVFR cigs
for the next two hours at ACT due to lower clouds continuing to
develop and spread out across southern Central Texas. Northerly
winds will prevail through the rest of the period, with winds
increasing slightly to around 10-15 kts over this afternoon. There
is a chance for light precipitation at ACT late this afternoon,
but with dry air below the cloud deck, much of the rain will
likely evaporate before it hits the ground. Have declined to
include any mention of rain in the TAF at this time, but will keep
watch for any greater possibilities.

After the TAF period, winds will shift more easterly on Saturday.
This will be included in future TAF issuances.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    81  62  77  63  73 /   0   5   5  30  60
Waco                80  62  77  63  72 /  10  10  10  30  80
Paris               80  57  80  60  75 /   0   5   0  10  40
Denton              80  59  77  59  72 /   0  10   5  30  60
McKinney            80  58  78  61  73 /   0   5   5  20  60
Dallas              82  63  78  62  74 /   0   5   5  30  60
Terrell             80  59  77  62  73 /   0   5   5  20  60
Corsicana           82  62  78  64  75 /   5   5   5  30  70
Temple              80  62  78  63  74 /  20  10  20  30  80
Mineral Wells       80  59  74  60  71 /   5  10  20  40  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$