Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251001
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
601 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Wedge of high pressure builds into ENC today. A coastal low is
becoming increasingly likely mid week bringing inclement weather
to eastern North Carolina. A second high pressure ridge then
builds in from the south and west over the weekend bringing fair
weather back to ENC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 230 AM Monday...Brief high pressure fills in with a low
spinning well offshore to our east. The resultant pressure
gradient is resulting in N/NE flow, but rapid decoupling for the
coastal plain with clear skies and calm winds is causing
temperatures to drop. Much of inland ENC is in the mid 30s,
dropping to the low 30s through the remainder of the night, and
a few observations in the upper 20s not out of the question.
Frost advisory has been upgraded to a freeze warning for
Duplin/Lenoir/Greene/Pitt/Martin Counties with decoupling having
occurred sooner than expected. Frost advisories continue for
the other inland counties, with no expansion made. Beaches are
in the low to mid 40s, not projected to decouple as stronger
flow results in more mixing. This will result in lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s for beaches. Some high clouds will move
in from the W as we get into the early morning hours, but
coverage will be limited. Coastal Flooding/Overwash concerns
continue, see section below for details.

Canadian high pressure will continue to build in from the NNE
Monday while low pressure meanders offshore. Low level
thickness values, mostly sunny skies and NE flow support below
normal temps, with highs warming up into the low/mid 50s for the
Outer Banks and mid 50s to mid 60s inland. Coastal
Flooding/Overwash concerns still ongoing, see section below for
more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...Low pressure offshore will broaden,
bringing increased low level cloud cover from the east Monday
night. This will increase lows by 5-10 degrees from this
morning, mid-upper 30s inland and mid 40s for beaches. Winds
will be light northerly, and moisture will be confined to the
lowest layers, denying any chance of shower formation associated
with the increase in cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 400 AM Mon... A quiet start to the long term with
inclement weather forecast midweek this week, followed by
quieter weather this weekend.

Tues... Upper ridging will remain over the Southeast on Tue
while a deep and broad upper trough across the Intermountain
West will slowly trek E`wards into the Central CONUS. Initial
shortwave will track across the Plains and into the Appalachians
Tue night while the main shortwave of note for later this week
slowly enters into the Plains. Associated surface low deepens as
it tracks NE`wards into the Upper Midwest with cold front
extending SW`wards across the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys
into the Deep South by Tue evening. Canadian high pressure will
remain wedged across the Carolinas during the day keeping winds
NE`rly across ENC. However, this ridge is forecast to slowly
erode to the north and east Tue night as the aforementioned s/w
and surface cold front begin to approach. Onshore flow allows
moisture to gradually advect into the region on Tue allowing an
increase in high and mid level cloud cover Tue afternoon and
evening. As is typical in northeasterly flow regimes, high
temperatures will vary widely across the area from mid to upper
60s along and south of Highway 70 to the low to mid 50s along
the northern Outer Banks. Low pressure will continue to meander
offshore, keeping elevated northerly winds in place along the
Outer Banks thru Tue afternoon and promoting ongoing coastal
flooding and beach hazard concerns for areas particularly north
of Cape Hatteras -see the TIDES/COASTAL FLOOD section for
details.

Wed through Fri...Next round of inclement weather will be Wed night
into Thurs. Low pressure over the Upper Midwest in response to
a negatively tilted shortwave trough will drag a slow-moving
cold front towards the Carolinas on Wednesday, with this front
eventually stalling over the area Wed night. The frontal
boundary will likely have a continued increase in clouds and
some modest shower activity although best lift will be displaced
well to our west.

The bigger concern is the second s/w trough mentioned earlier
which is forecast to pivot across the Gulf States Wed night
into Thurs, which will drive robust cyclogenesis along the
surface boundary. Guidance continues to suggest cyclogenesis
along the Southeastern Coast with this surface low then tracking
NE`wards on Thurs nearing the NC coast Thurs afternoon before
departing to the north and east overnight. With this in mind,
the risk of heavy rainfall, strong winds and renewed coastal
impacts continue to increase for Wed night into Thurs, but their
severity still remains uncertain. Increased winds and PoPs
slightly from the prior forecast, focusing the heaviest
rainfall overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and the strongest
winds Thursday night into Friday. Did add in a SCHC of some
thunder mainly along our SW`rn zones and coastal waters as some
instability does look to be advected NE`wards into the region,
though there remains low confidence in overall coverage of any
thunder threat given current low track, which may keep the area
in a more stable airmass than currently forecast. Warmest day
across the area will be Wed with near to above avg temps
forecast everywhere but the NOBX where onshore flow and cloud
cover may limit highs. Thurs and Fri temps decrease becoming
slightly below avg as widespread cloudcover and steady rain
persist.

This weekend...Dry weather returns for next weekend as high
pressure builds back over the area from the southwest. This will
allow temps to rebound as well with high temps increasing each
day this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday Night/...
As of 200 AM Sun...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
period. some high clouds through the day Monday with scu likely
along the immediate coast. Monday night brings a chance of sub-
VFR conditions with low level moisture moving in from the east
as the low offshore broadens. Current expectation is for CIGs of
1-2kft, but IFR cats (sub 1kft) are being hinted at by models
and will warrant a closer look as we get closer.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon... We start the long term period out with VFR
conditions on Tue as only high clouds are forecast across ENC.
Although strong N`rly winds especially across the OBX will
persist through Tue morning. However as we get into Wed and Wed
night a cold front will approach the area bringing a risk of
showers and sub VFR ceilings, with a more potent coastal low
impacting the area late Wed night into Thurs and bringing
another period of sub-VFR flight conditions. Expect rapid
clearing by Fri with VFR conditions then returning for the
weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday/...
As of 10 PM Sun...Have dropped gales for all waters and sounds
except for the waters near Diamond Shoals, where mixing over the
warm Gulf Stream keeping winds elevated above 35 kt. Gales have
been replaced with SCA`s, where winds will remain generally
20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt.

Prev disc...As of 330 PM Sun...Dangerous marine conditions
continue across the waters into Monday. Latest obs show strong
NNE winds 20-30 kt with gusts 30-40 kt and seas 10-15 kt north
of Ocracoke and 6-11 ft south. Strong NNE winds and dangerous
seas will continue today. Low pressure deepening out over the
western Atlantic will keep winds and seas up through tonight,
and into Monday. Winds have peaked but will be slow to subside
tonight into Monday. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal
waters and sounds, with SCAs for the inland rivers. NE winds
15-25 kt will continue Monday, strongest over the eastern
Pamlico Sound and coastal waters. However, even as winds improve
a bit powerful swell will keep seas 8-14 ft north of Ocracoke
and 5-10 ft south.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 4 AM Mon... Overall not much change in the forecast as
dangerous marine conditions will finally begin to abate Tue.
Canadian high pressure remains over the Carolinas from the
north, but with low pressure continuing to meander offshore
strong northeasterly flow will be slow to ease Tue morning.
Gusts of 25+ knot will likely continue thru Tuesday morning
particularly for offshore waters. We do get a brief reprieve Tue
night through Wed with winds generally remaining around 5-10
kts coming from the NE-E. However, focus then turns to Thurs as
a cold front approaches the waters, with a coastal low then
develops and lifts across the area. Details on low track and
intensity are slowly coming into focus with a return of
widespread Gales especially across our coastal waters and larger
sounds appearing increasingly likely Thu night into Friday.

The persistent northerly fetch will keep seas dangerously high with
the worst conditions lasting through Tuesday morning - 8-12 feet
from Cape Lookout northward, and up to 15 feet for the waters beyond
15 nm. Seas will be slow to fall through the week, and while most
recent guidance shows a brief break in the seas with seas
falling closer to 4-6 ft Wed night into Thursday morning, SCA
conditions may not break before the next coastal low approaches
the area on Thurs. Seas may however fall for good over the
weekend as high pressure comes in from the south and west.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 6 AM Sun...Coastal Flood Warnings (2-4 ft agl) remain in
effect though Monday morning for ocean side locations north of
Cape Lookout to Ocracoke Inlet and through Monday night for
Ocracoke Inlet north to Duck. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in
effect for southern Craven, Pamlico (1-3 ft agl), as well areas
adj to the southern Albemarle Sound and Alligator Rvr (1-2 ft
agl) for the northerly winds into Monday morning.

There have been no significant changes since yesterday evening
as NC 12 remains closed per NCDOT on the northern end of
Ocracoke Island due to ocean overwash and dangerous driving
conditions this morning. Hatteras to Ocracoke ferry service
remains suspended until further notice. Other oceanside areas
with vulnerable dune structure may also be impacted and
impassable at times, esp around high tide.

High Surf Advisories continue from Cape Lookout north due to
large, breaking waves and wave runup. North of Cape Hatteras,
the advisory will run through Wednesday morning as persistent
northerly fetch funnels large long-period swell along the
beaches with surf zone seas reaching up to 8-12 feet.

Details are beginning to come into at least a little better
focus for later this week, with an increasing potential for
another coastal low to impact the area at the end of the work
week with another round of strong winds and coastal flooding
possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ029-044-079-
     090-091.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     NCZ045>047-094-194.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ080-092-193-
     198.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ196.
     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-204.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ131-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150-152-
     156-158.
     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...RCF/RJ
MARINE...RCF/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX


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