815
FXUS61 KPHI 020052
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
852 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday. High pressure builds closer to the area later
Wednesday into Thursday before settling over our area on Friday
and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 845 PM, the Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been extended to
10 PM for a few of our MD and DE counties to Cape May County in
NJ (and adjacent marine areas). It was dropped for areas farther
north that were still in it.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for locations near and along the
I-95 corridor and southeast Pennsylvania until 2AM EDT.

The main threat for lingering severe thunderstorms for a little
longer is across parts of our Delmarva areas. This is where an
organized cluster of storms is moving through. Damaging
straight-line winds remain the main threat with these storms,
where a DCAPE gradient remains. Farther north, the environment
has been worked over enough and therefore mostly just showers
remain although some thunder continues in far southeastern NJ.

The flash flooding risk has mostly decreased however given some
flooding occurring still will keep the Flood Watch up for now.
Some showers will continue overnight with some thunder. Lows
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Latest guidance suggests this frontal boundary will slow down
and possibly become quasi-stationary across southern New Jersey
and the southern Delmarva come daybreak Wednesday. As a result,
additional showers and thunderstorms may develop across this
corridor through Wednesday morning before gradually shifting
offshore throughout the day. PWAT values in this narrow corridor
will still be near 2 inches, suggesting heavy downpours will
still be possible for at least the first half of the day. Skies
will be overcast to mostly cloudy to start the day with gradual
clearing in the afternoon from west to east. High temperatures
will be in the 80s, with some areas that see sunshine in the
afternoon further north and west likely seeing the warmest
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Widespread rainfall amounts once this is all said and done look
to be at least around 0.75 to 2.5 inches of rainfall, with
locally heavier amounts very possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and quiet weather follows for Wednesday night as high
pressure builds in to our south and west. Lows in the 60s.

While high pressure will be increasingly in control on Thursday,
a weak cold front looks to sink southward during the afternoon
and evening on Thursday. This cold front looks to set off some
showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm for areas near and NW
of I-78. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s.
Nighttime lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A lingering upper level trough looks to become reinforced as it
remains across much of the Northeast through the end of the
work week before moving offshore over the weekend. At the
surface, a high pressure system settles over our area on Friday
and Saturday and moving offshore on Sunday, keeping the region
mostly dry.

Daytime temperatures in the 80s for most Friday and Saturday,
with temperatures look to warm closer to 90 on Sunday. Dew
points are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s before
increasing to around 70 on Sunday. Overall, the most pleasant
day does look to be Friday which should make for a nice forecast
for the 4th of July.

Next week looks to begin hot and humid for next Monday and
Tuesday but there will be chances for late day showers/storms
as the next cold front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Visibility restrictions will remain possible in
showers and storms this evening hours for all terminals.
Lingering showers could continue through 10-12Z, with thunder
not entirely out of the question. An MVFR stratus deck could set
in for the I-95 terminals, KMIV, and KACY 03-06Z and continue
through the overnight. Periods of IFR ceilings are not out of
the question. West-southwest wind 5 knots or less. Moderate
confidence.

Monday...Sub-VFR ceilings may linger through the morning hours
for the I-95 terminals, KMIV, and KACY. Improvement to VFR is
expected at all terminals into the afternoon hours with
lingering ceilings lifting and scattering. West-southwest wind
around 5 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...VFR. No significant weather.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory conditions continue until early Wednesday
morning. There will also be showers/storms moving over the
waters and these could produce localized wind gusts over 40
knots. Winds and seas subside below advisory criteria by
daybreak Wednesday. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms
possible off the Southern New Jersey and Delaware coasts.

Outlook...

Wednesday night into Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions expected.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, winds go more west/southwesterly and lighten to
around 10 MPH or less. Seas decrease as well within the surf
zone to around 2 feet. There remains a 1 foot 9 second swell
from the ESE along with a frontal boundary just offshore. As a
result, we will have a MODERATE risk for rip currents on
Wednesday.

For Thursday, winds remain light around 10 MPH or less out of
the west in the morning, turning southwesterly in the afternoon.
Seas decrease further, to around 1 foot. The ESE swell will be
diminishing to a 1 ft 8 second swell and the frontal boundary
will be further offshore. As a result, we have a LOW risk for
rip currents for Thursday.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ060-070-071-
     101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NJZ009-010-012-013-
     015>019.
DE...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/MJL
NEAR TERM...Gorse/MJL
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL
AVIATION...Cooper/MJL
MARINE...MJL