099
FXUS64 KSJT 100533
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1233 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Tornado Watch in Affect through 9PM CT tonight across the
Northwest Hill Country, Heartland, Eastern Concho Valley, and
Southeast Big Country.

Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
evening mainly across the Heartland, Northwest Hill Country,
Eastern Concho Valley, and Eastern Big Country. Large hail,
Damaging Winds, and Isolated Tornadoes are possible across these
areas through 9PM tonight. Cooler temperatures are expected behind
the cold front tonight into Friday, with temperatures only
reaching into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms are possible Friday from the Southwest,
potentially affecting the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill
Country, Concho Valley, and Western Heartland. Storms that do
develop are not expected to become as severe as we are currently
expecting this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures this weekend with an unsettled pattern.

An upper low will be over the Nevada/Arizona border Friday night,
and will move over the Four Corners area by Saturday evening. The
low is progged to move across the western half of Kansas Sunday
night, with a trough extending south across our area. An embedded
disturbance or two will be moving over our area ahead of this
system. With this setup and increased lift/moisture in our area,
we have medium to high PoPs (40-80 percent) for showers and
thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday.

Rain chances should largely dwindle Monday with a weak cold
frontal passage, and as the aforementioned trough shifts east of
our area. Less cloud cover and a return to southerly winds will
result in warmer temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Our area will have another chance of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, when an upper
trough is progged to move into the southern Plains. The details
are more uncertain that far out, however. After highs in the upper
80s and lower 90s Wednesday, temperatures may be a little cooler
Thursday in the wake of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

MVFR ceilings in the 1500 to 2500 foot range are affecting all
sites south of KABI late tonight. Expect these low clouds to
persist through 12Z this morning, with ceilings then rising to VFR
heights by 18Z Friday, and expected to remain VFR through the rest
of the TAF period. There may also be a few SHRA and TSRA that
could affect areas south of KSJT and KBBD that develop by late
morning or early afternoon. Have introduced some VCTS`s and PROB30
groups to address this potential for Friday afternoon. Winds
should remain east/northeast through the period with a few gusts
to around 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  59  78  60 /  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  97  62  80  62 /  10  10  30  20
Junction    99  64  82  63 /  20  10  30  20
Brownwood   88  60  78  60 /  60  20  10  10
Sweetwater  82  59  78  61 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       96  63  78  62 /  20  10  40  30
Brady       91  63  77  61 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...20