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000
FXUS62 KTAE 280542
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
142 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The main update to tonight`s forecast was to tweaking the marine
winds by incorporating the latest HRRR, which shows a strong
easterly nocturnal surge with gusts near gale force. Coastal
observations from Cedar Key down to St Petersburg were reporting
gusts around 25 mph this evening. Otherwise, the remainder of the
forecast is on track. Mid to upper cloud cover lingers overnight,
but shows signs of modest erosion across the Central Timezone
counties.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A weak surface trough moving through northern Florida along I-10
this afternoon has produced a couple of sprinkles/light showers.
With just just enough low-level moisture in place, especially along
the developing sea breeze, decided to go ahead and add a 15 percent
chance for sprinkles/light showers along I-10 north into southern
Georgia and Alabama this afternoon. Any sprinkles/showers should
dissipate by this evening.

High pressure sliding down the eastern seaboard will maintain
southeasterly breezes and mild temperatures tonight into Sunday.
Slightly drier air arrives tomorrow and should preclude any showers
in the afternoon. Some residual moisture lingering in the mid and
upper levels will keep a few clouds streaming overhead through the
night and into Sunday. Temperatures tonight should drop into the
lower to middle 60s before warming into the lower to middle 80s
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Ridging will continue to prevail across the area on Monday ahead
of a shortwave vorticity maxima that is expected to enter the
region on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will continue to remain
entrenched off the east coast of Georgia and Florida Sunday night
through Monday night. This will continue to maintain easterly to
southeasterly surface winds across the area that may be gusty at
times during the afternoon hours. Overall, expect another dry day
with high temperatures climbing to above average values in the mid
to upper 80s, and lows starting in the low 60s Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The aforementioned shortwave vorticity maxima that is expected to
push into the region Monday night into Tuesday, with provide some
forcing for ascent across the region. The one caveat to this, is
that PWATs will generally remain around 1 inch or less across the
region. With the dry airmass entrenched over the region, the
coverage of rain showers will be extremely limited. At this time,
PoPs are around 15-20%, which is up from yesterday`s forecast.
This is likely due to the shortwave forecast to be slightly more
amplified than previous forecasts. Beyond this chance for isolated
showers, the remainder of the upcoming week looks to remain
fairly dry with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and lows in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at area terminals through the TAF
period. Similar to Saturday, breezy southeasterly flow will
prevail at all terminals with occasional 15 to 20 knot gusts
through the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting easterly winds about 10 to 15
knots, 4-6 ft seas, and a dominant period of 7 seconds this
evening. Although current winds and seas are greater near Mobile
Bay from a tight pressure gradient, a strong nocturnal easterly
surge is poised to develop later tonight and bring more hazardous
boating to Apalachee Bay initially before spreading west of
Apalachicola through the overnight hrs. Brief gusts to gale force
appear possible.

From CWF Synopsis...Elevated southeast winds will continue this
weekend with advisory level conditions expected tonight across all
marine zones; however, they will initially start across Apalachee
Bay before surging west towards the Panhandle marine zones. The
strongest winds are likely to be via nocturnal easterly surges,
and advisory conditions are expected areawide tonight. Gusts near
gale force are likely. Winds and seas will relax to more favorable
conditions early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Fire weather concerns will be somewhat elevated into Monday. Warm
and dry conditions continue through the weekend. Southeasterly winds
this weekend turn a bit more southerly as we head into early next
week. This should allow the sea breeze to push a little more inland
Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will remain low, generally less
than 10 percent, through Monday before increasing slightly as more
moisture works into the region on Tuesday. High dispersions will
remain over much of the region Sunday before lowering some on Monday
for all but the I-75 corridor and southeastern Alabama.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

With near zero rain chances for the upcoming week, there are
minimal flooding concerns at this time. Minor flooding is ongoing
along portions of the Suwannee River basin; however, these
portions of the river should exit minor flood, especially with
dry conditions expected areawide over the next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   81  66  81  65 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        84  62  85  62 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        84  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  61  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  59  86  62 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  76  68  77  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ750-
     752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Bunker