Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 260527
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
127 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The forecast is still on track, some minor tweaks to the temp
forecast across south central Georgia, over the next few hours,
as temps there have cooled a little quicker than expected.
However, given the approaching frontal system, an accelerated cool
down isn`t expected as increasing cloud cover stabilizes the
cooling trend tonight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Upper ridging maintains its hold on the region a bit longer through
tonight, before giving way to an extensive upstream trough
overspreading the country. However, a tight pressure gradient
remains in place as we are sandwiched between a 1030-mb surface high
over the Atlantic States and sub-1000 mb mid-latitude cyclone across
the Central US. Therefore, gusty winds will be the primary concern
into tomorrow morning, despite dry weather. A Wind Advisory is still
in effect across the Emerald Coast + inland Walton County where
gusts up to 40 mph are possible until 7AM CDT/8AM EDT with dangerous
surf at the Panhandle beaches through tomorrow night. Overnight low
temperatures are forecast to be in the sultry 60s thanks to robust
moisture return via long-fetched SE flow.

Attention then turns to severe weather potential tomorrow morning
into the afternoon. The aforementioned cyclone drags a cold front
along the Lower MS Valley and organized line of convection ahead of
it. The latest hi-res guidance has these storms arriving at our SE
AL/FL Panhandle counties (locations of greatest concern) in the 12-
14Z timeframe, then marching eastward to the Big Bend & SW GA during
the afternoon hrs, albeit on somewhat of a diminishing trend. The
environment is expected to highly sheared with a strong low-level
jet, but instability and fleeting upper-level support appear to be
limiting factors, especially from midday onward. Given the dominant
linear storm mode, damaging wind gusts is the main threat, followed
by a couple of possible tornadoes. The latter is most likely to
materialize via any embedded circulations and/or (semi) discrete
cells. Isolated large hail also cannot be ruled out in the strongest
cores given modeled steep mid-level lapse rates. The SPC keeps much
of the service in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) with a Slight (2 of
5) over extreme Southern AL into the Western FL Panhandle.

Pockets of heavy rain will need to be monitored as well, but the
flood threat seems more probable on Wednesday when the front looks
to stall out. Aside from convection, winds should remain quite gusty
out of the south with warm temperatures. However, thermometers will
run higher east of the Apalachicola (upper 70s/low 80s) where the
ridge`s influence is greater, and cloud cover is lesser. Low to mid
70s are expected elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A cold front draped southwest to northeast across the region
Tuesday evening will be in the process of stalling overhead. While
the rain associated with the front is forecast to be on a
diminishing trend, there should still be a couple of showers,
maybe a thunderstorm, ongoing much of the night. A weak
perturbation aloft and a jet streak at 200mb arriving Wednesday
morning should allow widespread showers and storms to redevelop
around sunrise Wednesday. Mid-level flow parallel to the stalled
front means there`s the potential for training showers and storms.
Add in precipitable waters (PWATs) over the 90th percentile, or
generally between 1.7" to 1.9", and there`s the potential for very
heavy rain somewhere along and just east of the stalled front.
There remains a fair amount of uncertainty as to where the front
will eventually stall, but the most likely areas for this heavy
rain Wednesday stretches from Apalachicola to Tifton and points
east. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) for excessive rain for the aforementioned areas on
Wednesday.

A shortwave embedded within the larger H5 trough will finally move
through the region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and
finally push the stalled front east of us. By the time all is said
and done, rainfall totals on the order of 1-3" are currently
expected, but locally higher totals of 4"+ are very much on the
table.

Temperatures will be a bit tricky during the period and will largely
depend on where the front ultimately stalls. On the western side of
the front, overnight lows will be in the middle to upper 50s to near
60. Meanwhile, areas east of the front will be stuck in the middle
to upper 60s. Daytime highs Wednesday will be highly dependent on
where the rain sets up, with temperatures closer to 70 within the
rain and middle 70s where it`s not raining.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The H5 shortwave will be pushing through Thursday morning as high
pressure builds over the region. After a breezy Thursday afternoon,
winds will remain rather light the rest of the period thanks to
surface high pressure overhead. Temperatures climb from the lower
to middle 70s Thursday and Friday afternoon to the lower to
middle 80s this weekend. Overnight lows also warm from the middle
40s Friday and Saturday morning to the 50s by Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Winds will continue to be gusty overnight with speeds between
15-25 knots with directions gradually clocking from the southeast
to south during the morning. A line of showers and thunderstorms
will move across Alabama during the day, reaching our SE AL and FL
panhandle areas later this morning then gradually moving east into
the afternoon hours with a slow weakening trend as it arrives into
SW GA and FL Big Bend late this afternoon and evening hours. Along
with it, cigs will lower along and ahead of the convection,
decreasing through MVFR to IFR conditions with the exception of
VLD which appear to decrease to MVFR towards the evening hours.
Vsbys will decrease underneath any convection as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Breezy to gusty southeasterly winds continue through tonight ahead
of an approaching cold front. Gale warnings remain in effect for our
western waters with Small Craft Advisories in effect elsewhere.
Additionally, seas will build to around 7-10 feet in our waters west
of Apalachicola with seas around 4-7 feet in our waters east of
Apalachicola. Small Craft Advisories will replace the Gale
Warnings Tuesday due to seas remaining elevated for another 18 to
24 hours. Winds will become northwesterly late Wednesday into
Thursday as the cold front pushes through with a tightening
pressure gradient in its wake, likely resulting in at least
cautionary conditions over our waters once again on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

There are no significant fire weather concerns with widespread
wetting rain expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Behind this system,
a period of dry conditions is expected Thursday into the weekend.|

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Franklin, Wakulla, and
Jefferson Counties tonight into Tuesday. A moderate to strong east-
southeast wind continues through the evening into Tuesday afternoon,
which will push water into the coast. The timing of greatest
flooding is forecast for the high tides between 12AM to 8PM on
Tuesday.

On the rain front, forecast rainfall totals of 1" to 3" are expected
the next couple of days as a cold front nears our area Tuesday and
stalls overhead Tuesday night into Wednesday. Guidance continues to
suggest the potential for two batches of heavy rain with this front.
The first batch is along the cold front as it arrives in southeast
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Tuesday morning into Tuesday
afternoon before weakening Tuesday evening as the cold front stalls.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Slight Risk
(level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall across SE AL, the FL Panhandle
and parts of SW GA Tuesday into Tuesday night.

The second batch of heavy rain will be along and east of the stalled
front; it`s where this second batch develops and moves that remains
uncertain due to the uncertainty of the location of the stalled
front. As of now, WPC has maintained their Slight Risk (level 2 of
4) for excessive rainfall for the FL Big Bend and parts of SW GA, or
from a line from near Apalachicola to Tifton and points east. Given
the possibility of locally heavier rain from slow-moving storms,
there is at least some potential for flash flooding. Flash flood
guidance is a bit lower across AL and GA with 3.5-4.5 inches in 6
hours and about 4-5 inches in 6 hours in FL.

While all the rivers have fallen out of flood stage, there is the
potential we see a return to action stage or even minor flooding on
the rivers later this week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  73  56  73 /  80  80  50  10
Panama City   63  75  56  73 /  80  50  30   0
Dothan        58  76  52  70 /  70  40  30   0
Albany        62  73  53  71 /  80  70  50  10
Valdosta      65  74  58  72 /  70  80  70  20
Cross City    66  75  61  76 /  30  70  80  20
Apalachicola  65  71  58  72 /  80  80  50   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for FLZ007-
     008-108-112-114.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

     High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for FLZ108-112.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ115-
     118-127.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for GMZ730-755-
     765-775.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Reese


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