140
FXUS63 KTOP 131944
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
244 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers taper off this evening and overnight.

- Next rain chances arrive Wednesday into Thursday, with moderate
confidence in drier conditions for the weekend.

- Temperatures stay near average for the next few days, warm up for
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A well defined area of low pressure is roughly over Topeka this
afternoon, with scattered showers spinning around it. Thus far
haven`t seen any lightning strikes out of these showers, but there
are a few hundred J/kg of CAPE present across the area. So can`t
rule out a brief rumble of thunder through the evening. Heaviest
rainfall continue to be in the deformation band to the north and
west of the surface low, with much lighter rain near and southeast
of the low center. Showers taper off during the late evening and
early overnight hours as the low pulls off to the east. As a narrow
ridge axis moves in behind the low, this will keep us sunny and
warmer for Tuesday. Highs climb into the mid/upper 70s.

After this brief break, the next upper trough approaches Wednesday
into Thursday. This trough looks rather broad with several vorticity
maxima moving through it, supporting several rounds of light
showers. A few thunderstorms also appear possible, but again the
best instability and shear for any stronger storms appears to stay
to our south. Temperatures through Thursday will be dependent on
cloud and precipitation coverage, though overall should stay in the
low/mid 70s for highs.

Heading into next weekend, a split flow pattern develops across the
CONUS. Predictability of in this pattern is quite low, given several
shortwaves moving through both the northern and southern streams.
Overall though, it does appear slightly drier and warmer of a
pattern compared to the first half of the week. NBM probabilities of
high temperatures in the 80s are around 80 percent by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Scattered showers, initially slightly greater in coverage towards
KMHK this afternoon, will gradually decrease in coverage late this
afternoon and into the evening hours. Ceilings have generally been
VFR with some scattered MVFR thus far today, and think this should
generally continue through the evening, with some more persistent
MVFR ceilings possible overnight once showers taper off. These lower
clouds should then exit to the east prior to sunrise. Winds become
northwesterly at KTOP/KFOE over the next couple hours, remaining so
for the rest of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Reese
AVIATION...Reese