805
FXUS63 KTOP 191734
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are likely by late this afternoon over central
  and north-central areas. All hazards will be possible with
  very large hail and possibly destructive winds being the
  primary threats. Also can`t rule out a tornado or two mainly
  embedded along the line of storms especially through early
  evening. Uncertainty in how strong storms remain as they
  approach far eastern Kansas areas.

- The potential for severe thunderstorms continues into the
  early portions of the work week with the greatest concern
  still focused into Tuesday afternoon, mainly over northeast
  and into east-central Kansas. Exact coverage areas still
  appear to be uncertain at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Currently, the upper air pattern is beginning to transition to a
more active set up across the northern and central CONUS. A Pacific
trough is digging south into the Pacific northwest and eventually
into the intermountain West. This feature will allow for embedded
shortwaves to eject over the Plains starting later today and last
through Tuesday before the parent trough translates off over the
Great Lakes and New England region. This sets up a few days of
severe weather potential to impact the local area. This afternoon
appears to be the greatest overall severe threat out of the next
several days.

Early this morning a decaying MCS continues to advance into north
central Kansas areas. This should allow for a few showers and
thunderstorms to be ongoing by around sunrise through midday over
north central into portions of northeastern Kansas areas and
southeastern Nebraska. Through the day as the upper flow becomes
more southwesterly across the central Rockies, southerly flow will
increase into the area. This will help an old shallow cold front
transition into a warm front and lift north with mid 60s dewpoints
being transported into the area. The western extent of the front
should become sharper over north central into central and west
central Kansas areas. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop
as an embedded shortwave ejects from the central Rockies by mid to
late afternoon. While the EML over eastern Kansas appears to be
stronger, sufficient mixing and low level convergence over western
Kansas should help breach the cap by mid to late afternoon. Very
steep mid level lapse rates allowing for strong instability to
become established. As the shear profiles increase with mid to upper
flow increasing and allowing for 40-50kts of shear, storms should
begin to fire near the triple point region. These storms will likely
be in an environment where they can quickly become severe. Thus, the
threat for very large hail and destructive winds appear to be likely
once storms develop. CAMS are in very good agreement in these storms
congealing into a bowing segment over central into north central
Kansas areas. As the LLJ intensifies into the early evening would
expect these storms to develop possibly intense RIJs which could
give way to destructive winds across portions of the area. Can`t
rule out one or two embedded tornadoes as the effective SRH also
ramps up.  Less confidence comes in how far east the destructive
wind threat will extend as storms push into far eastern areas by
late evening when storms may become more outflow dominant. Bottom
line for this evening, campers and other outdoor events will need to
have alternate plans and stay weather aware as the situation could
rapidly change once storms develop.

Into Monday, the overall threat of severe storms is less certain as
the best forcing appears to be displaced northwest into Nebraska. If
storms initiate more over northeastern CO over the High Plains, the
favored trajectory for storms may be just northwest of the area.
Portions of north-central and along the KS/NE state line will
still have the chance for a few severe storms into the early
overnight hours.

Tuesday, appears to still be lower confidence as the position of the
modified Pacific cold front will be an important focal point for any
afternoon and evening storms to develop along. The local area
probably ends up along the southwestern extent of the overall severe
threat. The main feature for this period appears to be the first
main Pacific trough ejecting into the western Great Lakes region
with the best forcing for ascent focused northeast of the area.
Obviously, this period is highly dependent on the mesoscale features
in place at the time.

A modified surface ridge and broad mid level ridge should be in
place through Wed and Thurs which keep overall cooler and dry
conditions in place. The semi-permanent western trough digs into the
west once again by Friday and could give more storm chances across
the area to start the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected outside of convection. Short term
models differ on the timing of convection into the terminals
and have opted to just go with vcts for a period at each site.
Will likely need to refine as storms develop. WInds will be
southeasterly to southerly, initially starting out at MHK from
the northeast, but a warm front will lift north with southerly
winds expected for much of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...53