Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211735 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1035 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018

VFR with SKC will persist through the rest of the day. Calm winds
will also persist through the TAF period before steadily increasing
later Thanksgiving evening. High clouds will begin to move in from
the west toward the end of the TAF cycle, gradually lowering to 12k-
15k ft at the lowest by 18Z tomorrow.



.PREV DISCUSSION...245 AM MST Wed Nov 21 2018...
As a weak low pressure area in southeast New Mexico moves eastward
across west Texas today, strong high pressure from the west will
overspread the state. Plenty of sunshine today will combine with a
dry air mass to produce above normal temperatures across most of the
region, except in the southeast plains, where highs will be slightly
below normal. A Pacific storm will move across northern New Mexico
late in the day on Thursday and Thursday night. This system will
produce mainly light rain and snow showers across northwest and
north central portions of the state with moderate snow likely in the
northwest mountains. A drier west northwest flow aloft will become
established across the area on Friday with breezy to locally windy
conditions from the central mountains eastward. High temperatures
Friday will be slightly below normal across western and central New
Mexico, but will remain above normal in eastern New Mexico. A storm
system from the northwest will brush northern portions of the state
Saturday and Saturday night with light rain and snow showers. This
storm will also generate breezy to windy conditions across the entire
area Saturday. Chilly surface high pressure will build southward
across New Mexico Sunday with lighter winds and daytime temperatures
5 to 15 degrees below normal.


A dampening shortwave upper level trough will move from southeast NM
across west TX today, as a fairly strong, high amplitude upper level
ridge builds across New Mexico from the west. Low level drying and
warmer temperatures aloft today will result in above normal
temperatures across most of the region, except in the southeast
plains, where high temperatures will be slightly below normal. Winds
today will be light and generally less than 10 mph. Tonight will
start out clear across New Mexico and then clouds will increase from
west to east after midnight, ahead of a Pacific upper level trough
moving across central California. The increasing cloud cover will
keep low temperatures from bottoming out, and above normal
temperatures are expected across western and southern portions of the
state with near to slightly below normal low temperatures elsewhere.

On Thursday, the upper level trough will move briskly to the east
across Arizona. This system taps into a stream of mid level,
subtropical moisture extending from the eastern Pacific across
northwest Mexico late Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon.
GFS and NAM are indicating that precipitable water in the Middle Rio
Grande Valley will spike upward to near 0.5 of an inch Thursday
afternoon, and up to between 0.3 and 0.4 of an inch across northwest
and north central New Mexico. The dynamics associated with the
approaching upper level trough appear to be maximized over the
northwest mountains Thursday late afternoon and evening with a 140
knot H3 jet left exit region crossing that area. As the upper level
trough passes to the east of the northwest mountains late Thursday
evening, northwest upslope flow will enhance precipitation rates
across this area. With this forecast issuance, snowfall amounts have
been increased slightly for the Tusas/San Juan Mountains and also
for the Sangre de Cristos. Snow levels Thursday afternoon will range
between 7.5K feet and 8K feet and then fall below 6.5K feet Thursday
night. The Tusas Mountains will receive 3 to 6 inches of new snow
with locally higher amounts, while the Jemez and Sangre de Cristo
Mountains can generally expect 1 to 3 inches of new snow. High
temperatures Thursday will be near to slightly below normal mainly
due to increased cloud cover, though temperatures are expected to be
4 to 8 degrees above normal across the northeast and east central
plains. Breezy west to southwest winds will develop Thursday
afternoon ahead of the approaching upper level trough and will range
between 15 and 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

Northwest flow aloft behind the departing upper level trough Friday
morning will shift to the west flow aloft Friday afternoon, as an
upper low moves southward across Washington state. A lee surface
trough in west and central Texas Friday and stronger winds aloft will
produce breezy northwest to west winds east of the central
mountains. Winds across these areas will range between 15 and 30 mph
Friday afternoon with gusts 25 to 40 mph. Downsloping winds east of
the central mountains Friday will produce milder temperatures with
highs generally 3 to 8 degrees above normal. Highs across the rest of
the region will be near to slightly below normal. As the upper low
to the north moves southeastward across Wyoming Saturday, a deepening
lee surface low will develop across eastern Colorado and the
adjacent high plains. The H5 gradient across New Mexico will tighten
up sharply to the south of the upper low. This scenario will allow
strong winds to build down to the surface across much of New Mexico
with high end breezy to windy conditions across the state and wind
gusts of 50 to 60 mph in a few locations east of the central
mountains. Light snow and rain showers will develop across the
northern quarter of New Mexico Saturday and Saturday night. Right
now, the southern portion of the trough is expected to cross northern
New Mexico, and precipitation amounts will likely be light. With a
deep surface low tracking to the east across Oklahoma and Kansas
Saturday night and strong surface high pressure in the northern and
central Rockies, breezy to low end windy northwest winds are expected
to continue across northern and central New Mexico overnight.
Northwest flow aloft and a strong surface high building southward
across New Mexico will result in a dry and chilly day on Sunday with
high temperatures 5 to 15 degrees below normal.

The strong surface high across New Mexico will weaken only slightly
on Monday, and a cold northwest flow will continue. Another chilly
day is likely Monday with high temperatures 5 to 12 degrees below
normal. A weak ridge of high pressure aloft will build eastward
across New Mexico Tuesday, followed by near zonal flow Wednesday.
This will produce dry weather and a modest warming trend. High
temperatures will recover to slightly above normal on Wednesday.




Widespread poor ventilation today is still forecast to improve
Thursday over the western and central high terrain, and increases to
good or better over most of the central and east Friday. Widespread
good to excellent rates are expected Saturday.  High temperatures
near to a few degrees above average through Saturday will plummet
well below normal on Sunday in the wake of a strong cold front. Lows
will remain near to above average as well through Friday night then
will be mostly colder than normal over the remainder of the holiday

West to northwest winds will increase Thursday, especially
over the western and central higher terrain, by afternoon and stay
strong and gusty along and east of the central mountain chain
Thursday night. Even stronger northwest winds are possible Saturday
and Saturday night, with gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible along and
downwind of the central mountain chain. Despite the periods of
strong winds, predicted humidities aren`t dry enough to support
widespread critical fire weather conditions.

High pressure aloft today will give way to another disturbance
Thursday and Thursday night, which will produce scattered rain and
snow showers across northwest and north central New Mexico as well
as the previously mentioned gusty west to northwest winds and
somewhat cooler temperatures. Snow accumulations with this system of
3 to 6 inches look to be limited to the San Juan/Tusas mountains.
Gusty winds to slowly diminish during the day on Friday, but another
and stronger disturbance will move through the state Saturday and
Saturday night bringing even windier and colder conditions areawide
along with brief snowfall to mainly northern New Mexico. Forecast
models have been trending drier and windier with this Saturday
system, and any precipitation may be brief and associated with the
cold frontal boundary. Winds should slowly decrease Sunday. Zonal
flow early next week should bring moderating temperatures but
increasing potential for precipitation by the end of November.




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