Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 201119 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
519 AM MDT Mon Aug 20 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A cold front has advanced through the eastern plains of New Mexico,
and seeped into the Rio Grande valley with gusty winds starting to
subside. A few batches of low clouds will also expand along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain through the morning, but any
MVFR ceilings should be localized. Thunderstorms will be fairly
sparse today with just a few stray cells over the Sangre de Cristos
and also the southern high terrain. Brief downpours and gusty winds
will be the primary aviation weather hazards with any storms this
afternoon and into the evening.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...209 AM MDT Mon Aug 20 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
A backdoor front has helped mix out smoke and haze from the Rio
Grande Valley to the around the continental divide this morning,
however northwest winds will likely bring back the smoke and haze
this afternoon to areas that saw it Sunday. The upper high slides
east of the state Tuesday allowing a better tap of monsoon moisture
to enter western New Mexico, scouring out the smoke and haze.
Increased storm coverage is also expected across western and northern
New Mexico Tuesday, continuing to the weekend. East of the central
mountain chain will remain dry with above normal highs. Storms are
likely to reach over far northeast New Mexico each evening during
this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The backdoor front has surged through the central mtn chain this
morning, replenishing moisture to about the continental divide. Low
clouds have also developed along the east slopes of the Sangre`s, the
Central Highlands down to the Sacramento Mtns and are expected to
burn off soon after sunrise. The upper high is squarely over AZ this
morning with NW flow mixing down this afternoon, bringing back smoke
and haze to areas that saw it Sunday. Thunderstorm activity today
will be limited to the southern mtns of NM, with a few isolated
storms over the Sangre`s possible as well.

The high shifts back over NM later today with monsoon moisture
working into AZ. The backdoor bdry, more accurately a sfc bdry by
Monday night will push back west, meeting up with the monsoon
moisture from AZ near the continental divide Tuesday morning. This
will scour out any remnant smoke and haze. PWATs at ABQ shoot up
from 0.31" Sunday evening evening to near or above 1.00" Tuesday
evening. The added moisture, to no surprise, increases storm
coverage quite noticeably over the western half of the state. Drier
conditions are expected for eastern NM where daytime highs will be a
few degrees above normal. Far northeast NM could see storms work
their way over from the northern mtns each evening. The monsoon tap
continues through the rest of the week with another healthy batch of
storms across western and northern NM Wednesday. Thursday, a trough
passes well north of the region setting up a more convergent flow
aloft along the NM/CO border. This could limit storm coverage a bit
across the northern mtns Thursday, however good storm coverage is
still expected for western NM.

Models continue to place the upper high close to the Ark-La-Tex
region by Friday with a healthy flow of monsoon moisture continuing
over western and central NM. Long range also looks beneficial to NM
with a deep trough digging somewhere along the CA coast next week
keeping the monsoon tap going.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front is currently rolling through the eastern plains of NM
and spilling west into, and just beyond, the Rio Grande valley. The
gusty winds associated with the frontal passage will subside into
the mid to late morning, and the front will offer cooler
temperatures and some stabilizing effects for portions of the
plains. Any deeper moisture will primarily be pooled over the
southern tier of the forecast area where storms would be most prone
to develop, but still quite sparse by typical late August standards.
The far northwestern plateau and west central zones will be plagued
by low RH of less than 15 percent late this afternoon as
temperatures creep above average there. Excellent RH recoveries are
expected for all but these far northwestern and west central zones
tonight into early Tuesday morning.

High pressure aloft begins to inch eastward into TX Tuesday through
the end of the week, even shifting toward the lower Mississippi
basin by the weekend. This will introduce a southerly component to
the flow aloft over Old Mexico and the Land of Enchantment, allowing
a more traditional monsoonal plume to stand up over western and
northern NM before eventually seeping into central parts of the
state. Showers and storms will increase day by day in these western
and northern tiers with temperatures undergoing a welcome decline
just below late August averages. The northwestern plateau will even
observe increasing humidity and isolated to scattered storms each
day. The eastern plains will predominantly remain mostly dry with
above normal temperatures in this flow regime with moderate
afternoon breezes.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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