Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 220513 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1213 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Issued at 856 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

The forecast is in fine shape. Based off slightly faster hourly
rate of cooling, have knocked a couple more degrees off overnight
low temperatures. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

Winds have shifted to the north/northwest across the entire area
behind a frontal boundary that moved through today. High pressure
will settle in over the area tonight and Monday, keeping conditions
dry. The combination of clear skies and light winds tonight will
allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with the
coldest air settling into low lying areas of the James River Valley.
Abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to rise into the mid 50s
to lower 60s on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

With a surface ridge in place over the eastern CWA Monday night,
dropped lows a couple degrees cooler than SuperBlend, especially in
ABR. Through mid-week, conditions look mild with breezy conditions
developing on Wednesday. Likely another scenario again where
SuperBlend may be a tad too cool with high temps, so increased
things just a touch. In fact, MEX/ECE guidance is a bit warmer than
SuperBlend, which ended up being the case during previous warm-ups.

As for precipitation, models still showing the system moving through
Wednesday through Wednesday night, with decent chances for
precipitation. Did not change POPs from what was inherited.
Otherwise, models show another shortwave dropping southeast through
the region Friday or Friday night, depending on the model as there
is still some discrepancy in timing on this wave.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

VFR flying weather is expected over the next 24 hours.




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