974
FXUS63 KABR 140808
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
308 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation will develop early today across central South
  Dakota, then will spread east later today and tonight,
  lingering across the east on Wednesday. Precipitation chances
  range between 40 and 70 percent.

- Precipitation returns Thursday afternoon and evening (15-40%
  chance).

- Temperatures to remain seasonal for next several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Weak upper level ridging will remain over much of the area today
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The trough will slowly
track across all but the far eastern CWA by late Wednesday
afternoon, bringing some weak energy tonight, then a more organized
band of energy across the east on Wednesday.

At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will reach the
western Dakotas early this morning, with its associated frontal
boundary reaching central South Dakota by late this afternoon. Warm
air advection ahead of the boundary will allow for much of the area
to warm nicely today. The boundary will be the focus for shower and
thunderstorm activity, starting this morning across north central
South Dakota, then spreading eastward this afternoon and tonight.
The boundary will be slow to exit the area, so expect to see
precipitation linger over the eastern CWA through the day Wednesday.
The best chance for some stronger, to possibly severe, storms will
be this afternoon across south central South Dakota where 1000-1500
J/kg of MUCAPE and 30 to 35 knots of bulk shear set up. This area
has been highlighted with a Marginal Risk for severe storms. Will
see 30 to 40 knots of bulk shear across the east Wednesday
afternoon, but instability will be minimal, so not expecting severe
weather during that time period. Precipitation amounts are tricky
due to the potential for higher amounts with any convection that
develops, but most areas could see up to one quarter inch or so by
the end of the day Wednesday.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs on
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The long term portion of the forecast will feature an active weather
pattern with several chances for showers and thunderstorms.

The period begins on Wednesday night with one storm system departing
the region to the east and another storm system approaching the
region from the west. The storm system will progress across the
Northern Plains on Thursday with the majority of the pcpn
occurring in North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A good
portion of this CWA will have a 20 to 40% chance for pcpn.
Conditions may dry out and warm up on Friday with highs in the 70s
and low 80s.

Additional low pressure systems may track across the region Friday
night and through the weekend. While models are showing a more
active pattern, there are disagreements with timing and placement,
which causes a low forecast confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the period,
except in the vicinity of potential thunderstorms. Showers and
thunderstorms will slowly move west to east across the region this
afternoon and tonight.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin