Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 201749 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1051 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Low clouds were moving down from the north late this morning
along with some cu/mixing layer clouds forming in our region. CAM
and operational models still showing some shower/storms
developing east of the James Valley into west central Minnesota
this afternoon into the early evening. Made some adjustments to
the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Cluster of showers continues to move southeast through the CWA and
is currently over Clark county, and looks to be out of the CWA in
the next hour. Have adjusted POP grids to reflect the latest radar
trends. Will continue to monitor potential for fog formation in the
next couple hours as skies are clear across a good chunk of the CWA
with light winds in place for many areas. Plenty of low-level
moisture in place as well.

For later today, additional shortwave energy will drop south across
the region. Currently seeing showers across northeast ND in
association with this next piece of energy. This wave will slide
south later today and may bring some isolated showers or
thundershowers across the eastern CWA. Left in slight chance POPs
from the previous forecast.

As for temperatures, highs look to range from the upper 70s across
the eastern CWA, to the mid or upper 80s across the southwest CWA.
With high pressure settling in overnight, winds look to go light and
temps could get rather cool, with lows in the upper 50s. Dropped
lows a couple degrees but there are indications we could be dealing
with some cloud cover, so did not want to get too carried away.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

When the period opens on Saturday, high pressure at the surface and
aloft is over the cwa. So, expect some dry weather Saturday into
Saturday night. A low pressure system moving east along the
U.S./Canadian border over the weekend will gradually set the table
for some northwest flow next week. By Sunday morning, a few late
night showers/storms could be firing on a low level jet and modest
mid-level/upper level lift somewhere over the western (MO River
valley) portions of the cwa. But, a better chance for some
convection will be setting up over the forecast area by the end of
peak heating on Sunday, as better height falls/cooling aloft moves
in to the region and a cold front passes through. On Monday,
conditions are drying out over the forecast area, and higher heights
are over the western CONUS and lower heights are over the Great
Lakes region. This northwesterly steering flow looks to lock in
across the CONUS, and is only reinforced when another area of low
pressure and its associated precipitation chances moves across the
region out of swrn Canada/the Pac NW Tuesday/Tuesday night. Beyond
that, models become discrepant enough that discerning any sort of
viable forecast scenario mid to late next week is tedious at best.

As for temperatures, not much change from what the dayshift on
Thursday was seeing. The 00Z deterministic suite of GSM models are
outputting low level thermal progs supportive of temperatures around
to a few degrees below late July climatology.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Mixing layer cu clouds will stream across the region into the
evening hours and should be generally VFR. Otherwise, the rest of
the period will be VFR through tonight and Saturday morning. There
could be a few showers develop in the ATY area this afternoon/early




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