Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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404
FXUS65 KBYZ 191523
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
923 AM MDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.UPDATE...

Only minor tweaks to the forecast this morning, mainly to adjust
temperatures and RH to current trends. Otherwise, a mainly dry and
warm day is on tap for much of the area with high pressure over
the region. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible over
northern areas this afternoon and evening. The rest of the
forecast remains on track and the previous forecast discussion and
an updated aviation discussion are below. STP

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

High pressure ridging will develop across the forecast area today
through Friday. This will bring sunny skies, warmer temperatures
and dry conditions. There will be a very slight chance for an
afternoon/evening thunderstorm today across the northern half of
Rosebud, Custer and Fallon Counties. Afternoon temperatures will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Winds will mix out by early
afternoon from the northwest and be gusty for areas east of
Billings. Skies will continue to be sunny for Friday with
temperatures warming up several degrees with most areas in the
lower 90s. Lee-side troughing will develop Friday ahead of a
Pacific front scheduled to move across the area Saturday. Expect
winds to be breezy from the southwest for areas west of Billings
with southeast winds developing across the east portions of our
forecast area, mainly southeast Montana. Hooley

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

On Saturday, an upper ridge axis will move eastward out of MT and
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly
over the mountains Saturday afternoon. Downsloping
southerly winds ahead of a cold front should give another hot day
to the lower elevations. The cold front should cross the central
portion of the region overnight Saturday night, and eastern MT
Sunday morning. The front could provide enough lift for a shower
or thunderstorm...but with overall dry air mass in place think
that coverage is limited to isolated.

Behind the front, winds will switch to northerly, which should
help to bring in slightly cooler air for Sunday. Surface pressure
gradient should help to produce breezy conditions with gusts to
30 mph on Sunday. An upper-level shortwave trough could produce a
few scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern MT again
Sunday afternoon.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper flow is west/northwesterly as an upper
ridge is expected to be centered over the southwestern U.S. This
pattern favors scattered mountain showers and thunderstorms with
just a few stray showers or thunderstorms moving over the lower
elevations, mainly over the foothills and northern WY. Montana
looks to be on the periphery of this ridge, with air movement
bringing better mid-level moisture to the south and less moisture
to the north...hence the better precipitation chances over the
mountains in the absence of strong forcing mechanisms over the
plains.

Next chance of showers and thunderstorms for much of the lower
elevations looks to be on Wednesday out ahead of a shortwave
trough moving through the northwesterly flow.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s
on Saturday, then 80s for Sunday through Wednesday. RMS
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. An isolated thunderstorm
is possible over eastern routes, including KMLS and KBHK, this
afternoon/evening. AAG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 090 059/094 062/092 062/084 057/083 058/083 059/086
    0/U 00/U    02/T    21/U    01/U    11/U    12/T
LVM 085 048/089 052/089 052/083 050/081 050/082 051/085
    0/U 00/U    03/T    32/T    01/U    11/U    12/T
HDN 090 059/094 062/092 062/086 056/084 058/085 058/088
    0/U 00/U    02/W    21/B    01/U    11/U    12/T
MLS 088 059/089 065/093 066/087 057/082 058/083 058/084
    1/T 10/U    00/U    21/B    01/U    11/U    12/W
4BQ 090 059/091 063/094 065/089 057/082 058/083 059/085
    0/U 10/U    01/U    21/B    01/B    21/U    11/B
BHK 087 057/086 061/088 062/086 055/080 055/080 055/081
    1/T 10/U    00/U    32/W    10/U    11/U    11/U
SHR 088 056/092 059/093 059/087 054/082 054/083 054/085
    1/U 00/U    02/T    22/T    12/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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