Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 192056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
256 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

Shortwave currently in north central MT is moving slowly east.
Weak forcing and diurnal instability are allowing some shower
activity to develop over the past couple hours. Isolated to
scattered rain/snow showers can be expected mainly in west/central
parts this evening, then to the east overnight into early Friday
morning. PV axis w/ showalters near 0C will brush our far
northeast between 09-15z, with instability through dendritic
layer, so could be some briefly moderate to heavy snow showers
from Miles City to Baker before the shortwave exits to the east.

Mainly quiet weather is in store Tuesday and Wednesday as upper
level ridge builds over the region. Temperatures will turn warmer,
with 40s to mid 50s by midweek. It will be warmest along the
western foothills where snow cover is somewhat spotty. Today`s
satellite imagery shows nothing but snow cover east of Billings,
and this will have its usual cooling effect on what would be
otherwise milder days. Western mountains will pick up some light
warm frontal rain/snow Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...

Ridge axis shifts east on Thursday, resulting in what should be
the warmest day of the week but also allowing for a moisture surge
through the great basin to begin affecting our western mountains.
Surface winds will strengthen out of the east, and this will
impact temperatures due to the abundant remaining snow cover east
of Billings. So, warmest temps should be along our western
foothills, near 60 degrees, with 40s to lower 50s further east.
Precip over our mountains will begin with high snow levels per
700mb temps rising near or a bit above 0C. Snow levels will fall
with the cold advection Thursday night and Friday. Passage of
shortwave will bring a good chance of showers to lower elevations
Thursday night into early Friday. Mixed precip and even some
freezing rain cannot be ruled out in our east with pockets of
below freezing air in valleys. Something to watch.

Active weather in store Friday through the weekend as Pacific
trof moves through the northern Rockies over time. This will bring
at least a chance of showers each day, with periods of snow over
the mountains, though models diverge greatly in details. Cannot
rule out some lower elevation snow Saturday night through Sunday.
Temps will fall back below normal. Should see drying by Monday.




Areas of fog with local IFR or lower flight conditions will
impact eastern areas from KMLS to KBHK through tonight. Fog should
dissipate early Tuesday with the passage of a weak cold front and
wind shift. Otherwise, an upper disturbance will bring isolated to
scattered rain/snow showers tonight...mainly in the west this
evening and spreading east late tonight and early Tuesday. Local
MVFR/IFR is possible in any heavier showers, along with wind gusts
of 20-30 kts. Mountains will be frequently obscured. VFR will
prevail Tuesday late morning and afternoon. JKL



    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
BIL 028/047 028/049 031/051 036/048 029/046 026/042 024/044
    20/U    00/B    01/B    22/W    23/R    42/O    21/B
LVM 027/048 028/053 033/060 035/052 028/046 023/041 022/043
    20/N    12/W    24/W    32/W    24/R    42/S    21/B
HDN 024/048 024/051 027/053 031/048 025/046 022/043 020/044
    20/U    00/U    01/B    22/W    23/O    42/O    21/B
MLS 023/038 019/041 024/042 030/041 025/041 022/037 018/039
    51/B    00/U    00/B    32/W    23/S    42/S    21/B
4BQ 021/043 020/048 026/049 033/048 026/046 023/040 020/042
    10/B    00/U    00/B    22/W    22/O    52/S    21/B
BHK 020/035 017/040 023/043 031/041 025/041 022/036 017/037
    66/J    00/U    00/B    53/W    22/S    53/S    21/B
SHR 023/046 023/050 027/055 035/051 027/048 023/042 021/043
    20/U    00/U    01/B    24/W    23/R    42/O    21/B




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